Author Topic: Unleavened Baker's Dozen  (Read 488 times)

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Third

Unleavened Baker's Dozen
« on: January 26, 2019, 12:32:54 PM »
Finding myself with some extra time on my hands, I have been thinking about bet selections and I thought I might "give back", providing a very conservative, tiered flat betting system for the Dozens/Columns.

Bet Selection

We will mark our sheet:

1
2
3

1
2
3

and put a mark in each section for the Dozen and Column that spins out.

For example:

1 1111
2 11
3 11

1 111
2 1111
3 11

This shows that Dozen 1 fell 5 times, D2 & D3 fell twice.  Column 1 fell 3 times, C2 fell 4 times and C3 fell twice.

We will always choose the selection that has the greatest disparity between the highest performer and the runner up.  In the above example we see that the 1st Dozen (5) and the 2nd Column (4) are the highest performers.  The disparity for C2 is 1 (C1 is 3).  The disparity for  D1 is 3 (both D2 & D3 are 2).  Therfore we will be betting D1.

After each hit, we re-evaluate our sheet to determine if we should switch selections.  As the status of the selections change, we flow with those changes.

Betting Tiers

We will flat bet 10 losses and then move down 1 Tier.

We will mark our sheet:

x x x x x x x x x x

placing our bet value under each "x".  For example:

x x x x x x x x x x
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2

Here we missed 11 times and the 11th miss was on the second Tier and thus was for 2 units.

When we get a hit, we will always remove 2X the amount of our bet from the sheet.  So, we get a hit and our sheet looks like:

x x x x x x x x x x
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

We removed 4 from our sheet which was 2 1 1.

If we are on the 2nd Tier, we will always stay there until all the debt is removed but if we are on the 3rd or greater Tier, we will raise up one Tier once the highest bet values are fully removed.

If 2X the Bet Value doesn't divide evenly into the numbers on our sheet, we will always take one more value off and write the remainder.

For example:

x x x x x x x x x x
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
4

We receive two hits on the 4th Tier which calls for a total amount of 16 to be removed and our sheet looks as:

x x x x x x x x x x
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
3 3 3 3 3 3

We removed 4 3 3 3 3.

We are still on the 4th Tier and so a third & fourth hit now requires another 16 to be removed.  Therefore, we do the following:

x x x x x x x x x x
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
2

and so we removed 18 (3 3 3 3 3 3) and wrote the remainder of 2.  Now we find that all Bet Values of 3 have been removed and so we go down to Tier 3 to lock in that recovery profit.  Once all the 2 Bet Values have been removed, we will stay on the 2nd Tier until profit is achieved.

The total bankroll required for this system is 300 units, the worst single drawdown being 100 units.

Let's bake a little bread!

« Last Edit: January 26, 2019, 01:00:03 PM by Third »
 
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Third

Re: Unleavened Baker's Dozen
« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2019, 01:50:18 PM »
Ok, this is too grindy.  One problem is that expectation is 1:3, hits:spins and we are relying on 1:2 to clear the debt.  Another problem is that 10 misses seems too long; maybe a compromise of 7 misses could be made...
 

Sputnik

Re: Unleavened Baker's Dozen
« Reply #2 on: January 26, 2019, 02:18:13 PM »


Third i don't want to steel your topic, but will share one method.
Did not test other then short samples.

A long time ago a member with the name JLP post a topic about one Italian system player who wrote a book.
This was at VLS forum during 2008/2009

The original system perform very well before it bust betting against the figure or formation of two dozens.
The selection work like this:

You see dozen one hit you follow it for six times.
If you lose you follow the last hit dozen for six times.

This way you force two dozen to hit six times, twice after each other, with two different sleeping dozens.

Now i improve this method - my opinion - and play the following way:

You wait until two dozen has hit, then you play the sleeping dozen for three times.
If you win you look back to see wish is the two latest dozen hits and bet the sleeping one for three attempts.
Continue doing so on a rolling basis.

If you lose you wait until that particular dozen hit and then look at the what dozen has hit twice and bet the sleeping one.
That way you create a figure or formation with at least five times domination for two dozen hitting twice after each other, with other words you get two sleeping dozens after each other.

This increase depending one how many levels or stages of three attempts you will use for each attack.
Here is a short sample for 53 spins.

W
LW
W

LLL

LLW
W
W
W
LW
W

LLL

LLW
LW

LLL

W
W
LLW
LW
LW
W
W
LW

LLL
« Last Edit: January 26, 2019, 03:17:48 PM by Sputnik »
 
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rimsky

Re: Unleavened Baker's Dozen
« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2019, 11:25:47 AM »
Third,
I like the "too grindy" approach but it's been long time that the Bread-Winner has shown to be a loser. In bad days you find yourself stuck at the second or third level of the progression for so long and never be able to go down to the first and reach profits.
 
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