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Author Topic: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance  (Read 7755 times)

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thomasleor

Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« on: January 03, 2019, 10:55:42 AM »
The latest member to this forum, Stratege,  made me reopen some old books on the now forgotten french mathematician and avid roulette player, Count Marigny de Grilleau. The Count once wrote this interesting view on the notion of Chance (my crude translation from his very beautiful french);

"A number of words, more or less synonymous, such as "chance," "destiny," "luck," "fate,", "fortune," or "destiny," represent in the resigned spirit of the crowd the idea of ​​a superior power, blind distributor of good and evil, sometimes allowing the most chimerical hopes to be fulfilled, and causing the best prepared projects to collapse.  The word chance that we prefer to hide the inexplicable origin of some bizarre or unexpected facts does not correspond to the mysterious idea that we have events whose eventuality can neither be provoked nor prevented, neither planned nor calculated, unless they are unique, or at least very rare and very isolated, and therefore not subject to repetitions or periodic returns.

It is therefore wrong that many people believe that games of chance consist of a set of combinations that would have no causes or limits "because chance would be capable of anything".
This naive belief is absolutely wrong, because in games of chance, the latter is in tutelage and kept within fairly precise limits.But human intelligence, in its slowness and insufficiency , can not go back, without the help of a laborious analysis, from the facts ascertained to the statistical laws of balance and deviation which keep them under their control ... violence and duration are irreconcilable."


Unfortunately the Count never lived to see the introduction of the Monte Carlo Simulations, a technique invented by one of the Manhattan project math geniuses, Stanislav Ulam. He would have loved that one.


Though it has had a deep impact on the calculation of outcomes on financial instruments,the game of roulette could well fit within its purview of Drift, Standard Deviation and Variance analysis.It is basically a technique used to understand the impact of risk and uncertainty in prediction and forecasting models.


« Last Edit: January 03, 2019, 11:17:25 AM by thomasleor »
 
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Stratege

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2019, 12:43:29 PM »
There is a common point between the basic theory of Marigny de Grilleau and "the Monte Carlo method". It is the convergence of information to predict an event that is random in its statistical distribution, but which by cross-referencing of several indices becomes less random according to the convergence of these indices. I said this morning, in another topic, that an old author said, in 1862, "you have to have the spirit of combination". One of the strong points of "the Monte Carlo method" is to make random scenarios to gather clues.
Personally, without knowing the formulas of the Monte Carlo method, I also make scenarios with my personal model because I learned "the spirit of combination" (by several old authors  8) 8) 8) ) and "convergence of probabilities" by Marigny.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2019, 12:54:44 PM by Stratege »
 
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Third

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2019, 01:07:43 PM »
I am a huge fan of analyzing statistical output and creating statistical models and simply quantifying random output in real time.  Thank goodness that we have talented minds (like Thomas points out without the help of computers!) that have come before us and have understood the physics of statistics. 
 
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Stratege

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2019, 06:15:11 PM »
I can say a few words about Marigny's talented spirit. His project was to achieve a very high advantage (result: 10%) and therefore play very few spins. But the big thing for him is that you only need 30 capital chips ! I simulated over 500,000 spins with 55/45 (10%) and the bankroll of 30 was not lost ! The huge advantage is especially in the low bankroll and this is great. He fought deviance in the best of ways. He avoided the zeros a lot and earned a lot more because small bankroll value.
 
« Last Edit: January 03, 2019, 06:17:38 PM by Stratege »
 
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scepticus

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2019, 07:09:32 PM »
" He avoided the zeros a lot and earned a lot more because small bankroll value."
Just   as I do   :D but within a 4 spin cycle and am mocked for doing so  !
« Last Edit: January 03, 2019, 07:58:28 PM by scepticus »
 
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Third

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2019, 08:37:36 PM »
Wow Strat that is amazing!  How did you get ahold of his materials?
 

Stratege

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #6 on: January 04, 2019, 03:11:55 PM »

Wow Strat that is amazing!  How did you get ahold of his materials?

5000 spins and by combinatorial  :)
« Last Edit: January 04, 2019, 03:37:58 PM by Stratege »
 

Third

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #7 on: January 04, 2019, 08:38:42 PM »
5000 spins and by combinatorial

What does this mean?
 
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Stratege

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #8 on: January 04, 2019, 08:51:15 PM »

There are different ways to use the information. The simplest and without specific tools to make
combinatory, you can on Excel make simple chances. Example numbers 2 to 19; 3 to 20 ... To make 55/45 take 1 to 20; 2 to 21 ... we look for the "disaster scenario" for his method like that.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2019, 08:53:31 PM by Stratege »
 

Third

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #9 on: January 04, 2019, 09:09:23 PM »
I have investigated this method deeply and I discovered that when we go searching through roulette's dark alleys, we discover worse sequences that we would normally experience otherwise. 



Its the curve fitting curse.
 

Stratege

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #10 on: January 04, 2019, 09:17:32 PM »
The French did not understand Marigny well. The Germans know Marigny well, they understand better because they are workers. Anglophones don’t understand much Marigny because it's from another era ? In Europe we talk about Marigny (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy) for a very long time. It's in their roulette culture. The problem is that casino Europe is small, so those who win say nothing and those who don’t understand the method of Marigny say that you can’t win!
« Last Edit: January 04, 2019, 09:24:09 PM by Stratege »
 
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Third

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #11 on: January 04, 2019, 09:32:39 PM »
Well my actual question was:

How did you get ahold of his writings so you could study them?
 

Stratege

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #12 on: January 04, 2019, 09:48:08 PM »
It is forbidden to quote links to buy. Tomorrow I will tell you this in private message. There is also a university library in France where you can find the 400-page book. But if you do not read French, you will suffer! The French who talk about Marigny on the forums have a very low level. So reading this is not interesting.
 
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Stratege

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2019, 06:31:25 AM »
On the net, there is in French roulette forum and a site give a lot of interesting information. You can
copy and google translation. In Italy on a big forum we talk about Marigny but it's bad, in Germany a few best. Many players and authors have made variants, without understanding the laws of chance on the simple chances explained by Marigny, so nothing good. It is with these variations that things on Marigny have gone through almost a century.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2019, 06:37:43 AM by Stratege »
 
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Sputnik

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #14 on: January 05, 2019, 09:06:25 AM »


Hello and Welcome to forum - do you have a link to the French forum.

Cheers
 
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