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Author Topic: The Dozen Drive  (Read 30016 times)

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MickyP

The Dozen Drive
« on: November 12, 2018, 12:59:06 PM »
I thought I should balance my postings with some Roulette based topics.  8)

I call this the "Dozen Drive" because it's a simple and easy to use method to target a dozen playing field. You can take this basic concept and develop your own method of play using it as a foundation for your play.

As the numbers come up record the felt dozen it appears in. When you have two of the three dozens recorded you bet on the unhit dozen for 4 spins only. If there is no hit you continue recording until a number in the unhit dozen appears. You then repeat the process.

I have used this basic foundation to develop a viable method with a very high hit rate. How you bet will determine your level of success but with this you manage to isolate a target of 12 numbers over 4 spins. You do not have to bet all 12 numbers and if you do then a Kavouras type bet may help in your strategy.

Look into this and see that dozens do sleep but not as often as we believe they do. Each game is limited to 4 spins win or lose. You should be able to use this and develop a good method of play for B/M tables.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2018, 01:01:33 PM by MickyP »
 
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palestis

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2018, 05:19:15 PM »
I like it.
Though it has frequent 4-step misses, it is obvious that it has high hit rate.
The problem is if it misses the 4 steps after a trigger, and it hits in the 4th step of the next trigger, you have to go thru 8 dozen  progression steps before you come out with a profit. (Not a pleasant situation for the light-hearted).
                 But the biggest challenge is to test it long enough to find out how many  BACK to BACK misses you could encounter.
Well. thru experience I can tell that 3 back to back misses (12 progression steps), will be rare.
I expect 2 B2B misses (8 steps), to come frequent enough to force you into 12 progression steps before you recover and/or make a profit out of the trigger.
Therefore for my personal playing style, if I allow two B2B misses (8 steps), to  lose VIRTUALLY, and start actual betting in the 3rd consecutive trigger, I doubt if the system will ever lose.
Because 4 B2B misses I can tell it will be extremely rare , and 5 B2B most likely will never happen .
   There is also a need to come up with some "red flags", where you ignore the trigger and wait for the next more normal trigger.
 
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Third

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2018, 07:14:00 PM »
I think it would be important to note whether the Dozen we are betting is the dominant Dozen, the 2nd dominant or the sleeping Dozen.  Maybe our strategy can change based on that. I personally believe that the dominant Dozen will give us the most reliable results. Were you hinting that you are playing splits?
« Last Edit: November 12, 2018, 07:17:14 PM by Third »
 
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Mako

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2018, 08:00:21 PM »
Nice Micky, like it, was doing a similar concept last week.  Basically was waiting for the last 3 remaining unhit corners on the felt (all other corners hit already) then betting them using a typical dozen progression. 

It worked well so long as you placed a unique number minimum to it (to avoid cycles where repeats were heavier than normal, dooming you), in my tests I wanted 16 unique numbers hit AND three remaining unhit corners before I would begin bets. 

The problem lied in the wait time, you blow through a lot of sessions where one of the three unhit corners gets a hit prior to the 16th unique number arriving, which means you have to restart.

And because I was using a 10+ step progression it didn't allow me to scale the base units up high enough before hitting a table max, which means the income-per-hour of play was barely worthwhile.  Still interested in it, may test it more to see if I can get away with reducing the unique number requirement without hurting the hitrate.

Your dozen variant looks fun, easy to play and scale-able due to only going 4 levels into the progression.  Will fool around with it for sure. 
 
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Mako

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2018, 08:37:00 PM »
I like it.
Though it has frequent 4-step misses, it is obvious that it has high hit rate.
The problem is if it misses the 4 steps after a trigger, and it hits in the 4th step of the next trigger, you have to go thru 8 dozen  progression steps before you come out with a profit. (Not a pleasant situation for the light-hearted).
                 But the biggest challenge is to test it long enough to find out how many  BACK to BACK misses you could encounter.
Well. thru experience I can tell that 3 back to back misses (12 progression steps), will be rare.
I expect 2 B2B misses (8 steps), to come frequent enough to force you into 12 progression steps before you recover and/or make a profit out of the trigger.
Therefore for my personal playing style, if I allow two B2B misses (8 steps), to  lose VIRTUALLY, and start actual betting in the 3rd consecutive trigger, I doubt if the system will ever lose.
Because 4 B2B misses I can tell it will be extremely rare , and 5 B2B most likely will never happen .
   There is also a need to come up with some "red flags", where you ignore the trigger and wait for the next more normal trigger.

Did some probability work in the car to estimate base chances, was wrong, deleted.  :o ;D

Home, correct values:

LOSS (L) = 0.208427 = 21% chance = roughly 1 in 5 attempts

B2B (LL) = 0.043442 = 4.3% chance = roughly 1 in 23 attempts

B2B2B (LLL) = 0.009054 = <1% chance = roughly 1 in 110 attempts

B2B2B2B (LLLL) = 0.001887 = <0.2% chance = roughly 1 in 530 attempts

B2B2B2B2B (LLLLL) = 0.0003933 = <0.01% chance = roughly 1 in 2543 attempts

B2B2B2B2B2B (LLLLLL) = Palestis cryogenic freeze on casino floor, awoken after trigger occurs in 2019 = 0.000081983 = roughly 1 in 12,198 attempts

Be sure to check the work boys, you never know when Mako busts out the maths if the numbers are going to be right...and of course these are based on the single 0 wheel, an American 00 wheel would be much worse obviously.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2018, 09:10:52 PM by Mako »
 

palestis

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2018, 09:28:54 PM »
I didn't say I was going to wait for 6 B2B trigger losses, before betting
First I would keep the progression steps at 3 bets per trigger (instead of 4), to keep the progression low. 
Secondly,  I would enter after a minimum of two B2B trigger losses. But if another roulette shows 3 B2B losses, I would certainly switch to that table.
With many tables available, seemingly infrequent situations, become more common place than we think.
The point is, that when you are ready to bet with real money, to have certainty (determined by long term statistics), on your side.
If 4 B2B losses is extremely rare, after two B2B losses, it's nice to know that the next trigger will be a winning one.
With $10 or $15 starting minimum, after a 9-12 step progression, the risk can be unbearable for some players, even if there is some certainty for a hit in the next trigger.
I broke a lot of statistical records while playing a system with money , and I don't like to be the one breaking a record at my cost.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2018, 09:36:36 PM by palestis »
 
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kav

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Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2018, 09:29:46 PM »
nice thread
 
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Mako

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2018, 10:25:57 PM »
I didn't say I was going to wait for 6 B2B trigger losses, before betting
First I would keep the progression steps at 3 bets per trigger (instead of 4), to keep the progression low. 
Secondly,  I would enter after a minimum of two B2B trigger losses. But if another roulette shows 3 B2B losses, I would certainly switch to that table.
With many tables available, seemingly infrequent situations, become more common place than we think.
The point is, that when you are ready to bet with real money, to have certainty (determined by long term statistics), on your side.
If 4 B2B losses is extremely rare, after two B2B losses, it's nice to know that the next trigger will be a winning one.
With $10 or $15 starting minimum, after a 9-12 step progression, the risk can be unbearable for some players, even if there is some certainty for a hit in the next trigger.
I broke a lot of statistical records while playing a system with money , and I don't like to be the one breaking a record at my cost.

For sure, I was just joking palestis, love your work and how you look at the game.  :)
 

BlueAngel

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Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2018, 10:32:35 PM »
What do you people see on betting a sleeping dozen?
Is there something special on betting a dozen which has been absent for 3 to 6 spins, or any other bet selection which is inactive and below average probability?

I was betting this kind of fallacies 15 years ago and I'm really surprised to see how many still bother with such shallow and ineffective methods!
A dozen could sleep for 46 consecutive spins, if you wait 6 then you are 40 short, but don't you worry, the progression and hit and run will save you!
Do you have something more clever and effective than waiting dozens and ECs to sleep and then start betting on them?
Do you?
I think not, if you had then you would have brought it forth all these years in the forums.
In terms of money risked and time spent waiting to bet for sleepers, whether dozens or anything else in this line, is simply waste of YOUR time and money!

Why you cannot realize this?
What exactly is nice on this thread?
If the views and the thanks were money you would be rich, but unfortunately for you the casino results is completely different picture from posting on a forum.
 
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Mako

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #9 on: November 12, 2018, 10:54:00 PM »
You may call me troll for just telling you the truth but this is what happens when the truth is not convenient, in this regard I really feel mrJ when he is saying that you are a bunch of rookies and this forum is full of fallacies!

I don't mind you considering me troll, keep betting with your failure methods and eventually you will realize what I was, I'm and I'll say regarding this kind of betting!

Nothing you're saying is wrong BA, but it's predicated on central tenant:

That it's possible to beat Roulette, and win over time, without using AP or VB methods.  That a "system" can win.

And people who believe this, that a non-AP or VB-based method or system can win, are split among those who claim to win consistently (you, Ken, Turbo, etc) and those who also claim to win consistently yet whose methods don't have their respect (Palestis, Micky, etc).

As Caleb would say, it's either ALL bulls***, or it ALL works.  There isn't an in-between because of the altered payout table and the extra pocket on the wheel.

You're ALL system players.  You just believe that your particular system is "better" than others...and that may be true, to a small extent.  But again, the payout table and extra pocket all basically say that every method, every single one, will fail over time.  Ken's, yours, Palestis', mine, etc.

So lets just enjoy these methods for their entertainment value, and cut the "rookie" stuff. Because to any solid AP player, any of them, we're ALL clueless rookies.  Everyone.  And they're not wrong either.  ;)
 

Third

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2018, 11:33:41 PM »
 

palestis

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #11 on: November 13, 2018, 04:07:13 AM »

Is there something special on betting a dozen which has been absent for 3 to 6 spins, or any other bet selection which is inactive and below average probability?
A dozen could sleep for 46 consecutive spins, if you wait 6 then you are 40 short, but don't you worry, the progression and hit and run will save you!

Mickey's Dozen drive system has nothing to do with a sleeping dozen.
It simply states that if the last 2 numbers are 10, 20 for example, you bet on the 3rd dozen for 4 spins, or stop whenever there is a hit.
If you see 35, 12, you bet the 2nd dozen for up to 4  spins
If you see 35, 23 you bet on the 1st dozen for up to 4 spins.
If the target dozen decides to sleep for a long time, (sleeping dozen), and the other 2 dozens keep on becoming the trigger,  you stop betting until the target dozen shows up. 
Then you pick another trigger.
So if the dozen doesn't show up for 25 spins, you don't lose nothing more, other than the 4 spins that were played.
 
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palestis

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #12 on: November 13, 2018, 04:50:14 AM »
As Caleb would say, it's either ALL bulls***, or it ALL works.  There isn't an in-between because of the altered payout table and the extra pocket on the wheel.
June last year I was asked by Caleb to check out airball wheels in a certain casino for serious defects.
This wheel in the picture was so defective,  it was hitting the same diamond 90% of the time.
In fact while the rest of the wheel walls were shiny black, the spot where that diamond was, had  turned to grey  due to the constant friction on the same spot.  9 in 10 spins, the last diamond to be hit before ball drop, was just that particular diamond. (Dream condition for AP's).
HOWEVER, there was a big problem.
The machine did not allow bets to be made, after the wheel started moving and the ball released. Therefore knowing the starting ball release point was not available  until it was too late.
Because the ball release point changes in every spin. If you could bet after the release you can count revolutions and distances, and since you know which diamond was to be hit, you can easily bet the area around that diamond.
I am sure the casino knew about it because of the discoloration around that diamond and they changed the end of the betting countdown to before the ball release.
The rest of the machines had from 4-8 seconds to bet after the ball release.
The point is, casinos know all bout AP, and they take precautions to block them.
For live wheels there are software that monitor possible wheel bias.
So I guess statistics based systems is the only way to go.

« Last Edit: November 13, 2018, 04:52:06 AM by palestis »
 
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rimsky

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #13 on: November 13, 2018, 10:34:51 AM »
MickyP,
have you worked out a profitable win goal/stop loss ratio for this?
 
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MickyP

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #14 on: November 13, 2018, 12:31:00 PM »


Predicting numbers in roulette without AP skills is simply a guess but we at least have probability theory to guide the guess.
As Palestis correctly stated (this is for BlueAngel) the concept is NOT betting on a sleeping dozen. Anyway, who can tell when a dozen will fall asleep or come back to life? It's the old prediction story again. BlueAngel, your statements and questions regarding "betting on a sleeping dozen shows how little you  understand what you read. I'll spell it out for you... "This concept is NOT about chasing a sleeping dozen" although it may seem that way because the third dozen is the target area.

Now, let's look at probability; On average a dozen will show once in every three spins. This concept targets one dozen to hit in six spins. Think about that and think about how you determine a sleeping dozen, hindsight perhaps? Hindsight has little value as it will not change the odds the table offers.

As I stated, this concept is a simple tool to identify a felt dozen as a playing area for 4 spins. You do not have to bet the entire dozen, in fact you can bet four numbers within the target dozen or you can bet on all the numbers in that dozen that have come up within a 37 spin cycle where you have determined the start of the cycle.

This is simply a tool for you to use in the development of your own method. How you do it and whether you want to share or not is your prerogative.

Note: If a dozen falls asleep you only lose 4 bets but the game only ends when that dozen appears. We have no control of what numbers will sleep and what numbers will repeat but we do have a target of 12 numbers for 4 spins to work with.
Because bets are placed on or within the third to show dozen the presumption is that bets are placed on a sleeping dozen - False assumption.
I started a few threads inquiring about aspects of this tool that I was researching. I think the one thread is called sleeping dozen. There are a few other threads where I bring up and question this concept. Another thread has to do with losses. There is a lot of information on this topic spread out over several threads on the forum. Enjoy the research.

As far as a win goal and stop loss is concerned I must stress that this is a tool and is only part of a method.(a procedure to identify a target area to focus on for 4 spins). Other aspects have to be determined by yourselves relative to your bet selection.

My tests conducted so far show that the "sleeping dozen" phenomenon is not cause for concern as it is eliminated or its impact is reduced to manageable losses. I took the sleeping dozen phenomenon and studied the subject to a point of being able to test it and finally to play my version for real money in the casino. I only play single zero B/M tables and have developed my method around this. I have no idea how this will hold up on electronic based/ online/ RNG setups.

Do not be afraid to use other tools in conjunction with this one. The secret lies in the numbers...
 
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