Author Topic: Probabilistic Questions  (Read 638 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

BlueAngel

• I always express my opinion
• Hero Member
• Posts: 1977
• Thanked: 357 times
• Gender:
• Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
Probabilistic Questions
« on: October 30, 2018, 05:07:38 PM »
If an event has 1 in 3,000 outcomes chance to happen, would it be correct to assume that it should actually occur AFTER I bet 3,000 times?
In other words, does probability starts and finishes with my own bets?

If the answer is no, which means that probability is irrelevant of if/what I'm betting, then imagine the following;

I have bet just 100 times and at that time happens an event with astronomical probability, this is not strange because let's say a casino works 24/7, has many wheels and there are many casinos like it around the world, therefore it would be accurate to assume that every single week, at a casino around the world, an astronomical probability event happens.
Or to put it another way, a very rare event happens at a particular casino every month, just imagine how many results happen per day, per casino...whether you were on your first visit at that casino or a regular patron the possibility of such event doesn't alters, regardless if you were betting or not and what would you bet.

So my conclusion is that what happens will happen regardless of our observations and what we would bet, do you agree?

Let me give you another example, let's say I start charting and notice that 1 number is above average and an EC is below average, I decide to bet both of them, my charting includes something like 100 spins, what if we had the whole results' record for that particular wheel?
We could notice that the specific number is far below average in overall and the 18 numbers EC group is far beyond average in overall.
My observations were for just 100 spins, are more valid indication from a much greater total??

What I'm trying to say is that we just see a tiny chunk of results and what we observe could be just a minor regression while we perceive it as a great deviation, the exact opposite!
Charting could be very misleading, especially regarding totals.
We can see a "tree" and miss a whole "forest"...so if we would discard past results all together what has left to gain an insight about what's coming up?

Another example, I'm betting High, Red and Even simultaneously, on the same table, what are the chances to win or lose all, what is the possibility of either winning or losing 2 out of 3?
Another example, again betting 3 ECs but this time on 3 different tables, what is my chance to win/lose all 3, what's the probability of win or lose 2 out of 3?
Are those 2 cases same in regards to probability?
In both there are 3 18 numbers bets, the only difference is that the first case takes place on 1 table and the second on 3 different.

Please consider all questions as ACTUAL questions, not just rhetorical, everyone is welcome to respond!

BlueAngel

• I always express my opinion
• Hero Member
• Posts: 1977
• Thanked: 357 times
• Gender:
• Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
Re: Probabilistic Questions
« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2018, 05:35:37 PM »
If we would expand just enough our sight's horizon we could see clearer what's going on...
By covering more chances at once would reduce negative outcomes but since it would come at a higher price not really beneficial.

I believe that every system could be a winner or loser, what separates them is TIMING!
Theoretically there are no better numbers to bet, unless there are physical causes, BUT THERE ARE BETTER TIMES to bet something!

I'm not suggesting to change blindly between methods, but to have anything from 2 up to 8 and qualify them before you begin betting.
By changing blindly there is no advantage since we don't know if the change would be for the better or not.
For example, I'm using 4 "heavy" BR systems, these are my tanks which can endure for long, eventually 1 of them at a time busts a virtual BR, how unusual but yet happens!
The virtual BR had no impact in my pockets, only in my papers...in order to become a winner you have to learn first how to be a loser...!

MrPerfect.

Re: Probabilistic Questions
« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2018, 06:27:31 PM »
Even for " numbers better to bet" there are " timings". Stats triggers can be spotted and confirmed till satisfactory "confidence interval".
It's definitely better to be a loser on the " paper" with " virtual bank". It makes sense to lose time to pretrack on the day of play instead of losing money.

The following users thanked this post: BlueAngel

Re: Probabilistic Questions
« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2018, 08:52:27 PM »

BA, I can assure you that we are better off assuming that this rare event can happend right now, so that we can have this rare deviation be a part of our overall strategy.
your topic can be expanded to any systems that are used.
I have made the mistake many times after seing a treshold never been crossed over thousands of spins on live data, and took it upon me that a particular set of cycles would certainly not continued, only to find myself giving back weeks of hard earned profit.
the timing is impossible to pin-point and therefore taking a loss early would of been a much better decision then daring the impossible to happen . nothing worst then witnessing a new record being broken at your expense.
I am hard-headed and it took me a long time to learn the lesson.
the temptation to take the loss is too strong if you dont have it being part of the method.
i have seen it happen twice within the same night and shook me out of my comfort zone for good.
what we see as unprobable on data means only that it did not happen then, but that it could happen several times in the early future because of it.
that is why being on the defensive works for me and having a set stop-loss is so important.
if only I did not have to paid for the lesson i would of been a much "wiser player", and richer as well,lol
i think Angel that having a few method going at once can be a plus, but not always a must do. sending out another troop to help out the first one is good timing only if you know how far to take the bets or cutting them off.
I dont want to lose the big bets and win the small ones, which is what i used to do. the times that the wins come easy are the times we should parlay a few sometime as a "side bets". nothing worst then wasting these streaks.
you are 100% right when you said that there are many good methods out there that could be employed with others. one that come to mind is the "flat-bet parachute" that requires 36 units and that covers a total of 96 numbers if losing. one unit only per bet.  timing and knowing how to take a loss is everything.
if we learn just that, it may be the most profitable lesson that we could ever learn in our roulette game.

BlueAngel

• I always express my opinion
• Hero Member
• Posts: 1977
• Thanked: 357 times
• Gender:
• Do you want truth? You cannot handle the truth!
Re: Probabilistic Questions
« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2018, 09:30:25 PM »
In my opinion everything could be loser and winner, unfortunately systems, sessions, spins don't have tags as "winner" or "loser", so here lies the problem; CHOICE!

The choice which makes you a winner, the very same could make you a loser, turning against you like a traitor, a turncoat, without any warning!
The common sense says that something, anything, as long as it's good there is no reason to change it, when it's not anymore then it's time to replace it.
It would be even better if we knew when this change is going to happen beforehand.

A good detective analyses clues, information and cross reference any available lead, scrutinizes in depth till from all available possibilities remains only 1 or very few...yes, I do find analyzing very useful.
If we were paying attention to what was going on BEFORE a disaster happened then we could have avoided it, but usually we just focus on the end result and this is how far they can get, but HOW this came to be is all the money!
By running a simulation you could miss finer details which could have prevented a financial destruction.

What could beat this game? Nothing...Everything!
Can we be always at the right place,the right time? No, but there is a proper tool for every task, there is a winning system for every session, there is a losing sequence for every system, all you have to do is to match the pieces of the puzzle!
The reason for something to lose is because another one wins, know yourself, know your enemy and you will never lose over the course of 1,000 battles! Sun Tzu

dobbelsteen

Re: Probabilistic Questions
« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2018, 08:42:25 PM »
With the formula ASELECT(1;3000) you can create a random row of the figures 1  to 3000. After 3000 spins only 2000 figures have fallen on average. With the coupon formula you can compute how many spins you need for all the 3000 figures.

Also for this event the 2/3 rule is valid.