Author Topic: Playing the Wheel versus the Layout.  (Read 636 times)

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thomasleor

Playing the Wheel versus the Layout.
« on: October 20, 2018, 09:21:03 AM »
In my many years of playing the roulette I have seen all kind and manners of gamblers and "system" players, the latter often using an initially strict bet selection protocol but soon enough as the system based on a given set of  assumed layout patterns,  that essentially are mere suppositions of numerical patterns, which in the face of LLN (Law of Large Numbers) is mere logical fallacies, often results in frustration and hedge betting as to cover the short comings of the lay out system (due to its lay out number distribution design that does not equal the wheel number distribution design).

To recapitulate the above mentioned in a shorter manner easier to understand; Layout gamblers often see patterns where in reality there are none. And they additionally believe these patterns on the LAYOUT (table) are predicting a certain outcome. They do not.

What is on the layout, is a set of numbers that however you group them, will offer the same probability of hitting depending on your BET SELECTION.

A certain layout pattern, be it a collection of straight ups seen as a street, dozen, or column,  is no assurance for a correct future outcome. The probability is the same on any given spin.

But, and here it comes, whenever humans are involved in any given game of physical properties, advantages are to be found if you use said advantages in accordance with given physical laws of bodies in motion and basic game theory and probability ;)

Wheel sectors of a given span, tend to produce larger but still playable  sector- repeaters, due to a number of factors that are interdependently linked with the DEALER, the construction of the wheel, age of the wheel, the kinetic force on the ball, number of diamonds, applied wheel spinning force and so on.

A good player here, NEEDS NOT to be a math genius, just a meticulous observer of what has happened the past 10-20 spins. Sectors develop and vanish like large and small waves on a sea, the prevailing wind here being symbolized by the various dealers.

THE LAYOUT IS THE BEST MONEY TRAP the casinos has ever introduced since the first conception of this game of chance. It has the immense ability to bring out a thinking of great fallacy based on the notion of seemingly logical coverages of numbers contra their distribution on the wheel which do not follow the same configuration as the layout.

A good player always bets on the Racetrack, or its wheel sectors numbers on the layout (should the casino lack such tracks).

A reckless gambler playing the layout often splurges his bets with hedge bets and so on. In due time, he loses count how he has been betting over the past dozen bets or more. A wheel player knows exactly what he bets every time, as he uses sector betting of a specific length, easy to remember. A layout player might start with single bets on streets, then after some losses might start hedging with splits and dozen play and even splurging on straight ups. Soon he finds himself lost on what Casinos love, MM mismanagement and progressive bet failures.

If you compare for example a gambler betting on dozen, and a certain sector is in play (say 12 numbers being 31 to 0 on a single Zero wheel), this is what faces the layout gambler compared to the sector player.

12 Numbers of the above sector in play (sudden high hit rate on that sector) are identified as numbers 31-9-22-18-29-7-28-12-35-3-26-0

We see here that the layout gambler has a 32,43% chance of winningwhatever dozen he might choose. But should the zero show up he loses it all  (unless the casino offers en prison rules)

The sector player has the same chance as the layout gambler, BUT DOES NOT SUFFER suffer the same risk here as he covers the zero giving him a slightly higher but important advantage compared to the layout gambler. Adding to that slight advantage is a clear wheel distribution due to the dealers current throwing&wheel spinning signature that keeps producing same sector bets for a given number of spins ahead.

Here the layout gambler playing the dozen suddenly might see himself with the dozens changing from D1 to D3 violently, not being able to discern what is about to come up. This often creates frustration and losses, the latter because DZ players have a tendency to bet progressively which the Casinos love.

Strategically the sector player can here decide to make 3 bets in a row. winning 2-3 times produces a good profit. Winning only one time makes the short bet session a zero-sum game which still is good.

There are of course many other advantages with wheel sector play but I think I have covered the most important of them here.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2018, 09:50:03 AM by thomasleor »
 

MickyP

Re: Playing the Wheel versus the Layout.
« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2018, 09:45:27 AM »
Interesting observation on your part but I'm not buying the dramatization of how extremely useless felt betting is.

Why is sector betting on the wheel portrayed as the option where patterns are real yet felt based patterns are fallacy?
Each individual number has a 2.7% chance of coming up yet you place such high regard on Dealer Signature. Not so easy to master this! Casinos know about this and that's why alternating spin directions and periodic croupier changes were introduced. Croupiers are trained and I'm sure that Dealer Signature is a honey trap for the unwise player. All part of the training...

If you recognize any pattern (recurring event) in past spins then is it not true to say patterns/waves are real, irrespective of their forming criteria?   
 

thomasleor

Re: Playing the Wheel versus the Layout.
« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2018, 09:53:13 AM »

I am sure you think you are right. But as per usual, you are not.

Alternating spin directions is just another advantage due to the human nature of left-handed vs right-handed deviations that contributes further to sector wave formations.

I could continue but your sad history of similar erroneous assumptions, suppositions, and replies merits no further response beyond what was presented in the OP.

Casinos know about this and that's why alternating spin directions and periodic croupier changes were introduced.  If you recognize any pattern (recurring event) in past spins then is it not true to say patterns/waves are real, irrespective of their forming criteria?
« Last Edit: October 20, 2018, 10:03:14 AM by thomasleor »
 

MickyP

Re: Playing the Wheel versus the Layout.
« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2018, 09:58:15 AM »
?
Oh, what a nice come back; took you some time to think about and edit your empty reply. I have decided to follow your lead and edit/add to my ? reply...

You can brush me aside, no problem. You do this to avoid dealing with legitimate questions and concerns regarding your opening post. You're the man..... Enjoy.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2018, 10:12:25 AM by MickyP »
 

scepticus

Re: Playing the Wheel versus the Layout.
« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2018, 01:09:03 PM »
I agrree with your view of progresssions .
 If the casinos had not introduced "The Layout " , Thomas, where would the player put his chips  ? On the wheel ?
Your  recognised wheel patterns are no better than layout patterns. 

Dealer's Signature is a Gambler's Fallacy .
your abusive reply  does you no credit 

Incidentally, A few years ago I asked " A Suit" about spin direction and he said that they did not care if the dealer changed direction or not.   
« Last Edit: October 20, 2018, 01:18:21 PM by scepticus »
 

thomasleor

Re: Playing the Wheel versus the Layout.
« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2018, 02:09:57 PM »

Quote
  If the casinos had not introduced "The Layout " , Thomas, where would the player put his chips  ? On the wheel ?

Seriously, Scep, you need to learn to read or get yourself a pair of better glasses.

And I quote my own OP:
"A good player always bets on the Racetrack, or its wheel sectors numbers on the layout (should the casino lack such tracks). "

Quote
Dealer's Signature is a Gambler's Fallacy .

So is your interpretation of what really constitutes a "Dealers signature". As you are an old layout gambler, it is understandable that this OP may contradict all the notions and ideas you have about roulette and how it is best approached.

Attached see an image of what a racetrack is on most roulette tables.

 
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scepticus

Re: Playing the Wheel versus the Layout.
« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2018, 04:23:20 PM »
Your usual arrogant reply ThomasTHE LAYOUT IS THE BEST MONEY TRAP the casinos has ever introduced since the first conception of this game of chance. It has the immense ability to bring out a thinking of great fallacy based on the notion of seemingly logical coverages of numbers contra their distribution on the wheel which do not follow the same configuration as the layout.

A good player always bets on the Racetrack, or its wheel sectors numbers on the layout (should the casino lack such tracks).

As you have noted Thomas . some sites don't have racetracks . The layout was introduced before the racetracks. The racetracks were introduced for the convenience  of the simpleton AP like you who think hey don't need an electronic device.If rhe winning number is not zero ( a one in 37 chance ) then  MUST be in one of the three dozens
MUST be in one of the three columns
MUST be a red or black
MUST be either HIGH or LOW
MUST be Odd or Even

etc.etc.
Method players  can juggle these to find a bet with reasonable expectation.

I am STLL waiting for someone to prove my " Lightbulb Moment " wrong.  A genius like you should find that a breeze so go ahead and prove that you are not justa balloon- full of hot air and little else .