### Author Topic: Something to ponder  (Read 1146 times)

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#### BlueAngel

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##### Something to ponder
« on: October 12, 2018, 08:30:25 AM »
According Law Of Thirds there is roughly 65% chance to win at least once by betting 1 number for 37 spins.
Before I continue with my questions I'd like to let you know that LOT is not something new, not new at all.
There is a reference about it as "Law Of Chance" on the book "Monte Carlo Anecdotes", also the author of that book remarks a few things worth mentioning:

"As long as the world exists gambling is sure to continue.
A player without a system is like a ship without a compass, and there may be few which lead to fortune...

I am informed by a gentleman who has frequented gambling establishments for most of his life, that many of my so-called systems are erroneously described as such.
They are not 'systems,' he says, but only 'methods of play.'
From my point of view, however, every individual may be said to have a system who takes into the gambling-rooms a certain capital, with a pre-arranged plan how he will play it not only as regards how he will stake his money, but as regards how much it is his intention to win or lose at a sitting.

It is the players who vote systems a bore, and can never muster up the strength of mind to come out of the Rooms when they are winners, who contribute most to the profits of the Bank.

on for 37 spins of the Wheel, marking down the numbers as they appear.

The following curious discovery will then be made.
It will be seen that there are invariably about 12 numbers which do not come out.
This is the Law of Chance. Try it another way.
Put 37 numbers into a hat, and draw out one 37 times always of course replacing the number drawn, and giving the hat a good shake.

There will invariably be about 12 numbers which have not been drawn.
Or you can tell 37 different people to think of a number on the Roulette Wheel and write it down, without comparing notes, the result will be the same."

So here is my first question; if we would record 1 spin from 37 different roulette tables, would that distort LOT cycle?
Yes? No? Why?

2) If we would record 1 spin from the same table but for 37 consecutive days, would that ameliorated LOT?
Yes? No? Why?

3) If there were 2 options to choose only 1 number, which option would that be; 1 out of a group of 3 numbers or 1 out of 33 numbers?

Both groups are making the total roulette numbers, on both the same chance applies, by selecting from the small group the average expectation indicates 2 will come out of 3, by choosing 1 number from the large group there will come 22 out of 33, so I'm asking you that even with the same probability, same analogies, the smaller group seems better option because only 1 would not come.
Am I wrong or do you agree??

4) If we would choose randomly 24 numbers and bet them for 37 spins, how wrong could that go?
How many hits could be the least?

Since LOT favors no sleepers or repeaters, or should I say favors everything, the new 24 numbers are coming from everywhere, 3 groups:
sleepers, average, repeaters, thus 8 numbers from each group equals 24.

5) Does it make it a bit more clear than focusing solely on one group?

We could further refine those 3 groups by segregating them also in EC categories with always the statistical analogies in mind.

6) Would that resolve the chaos at some degree?
Would variance be milder since we are not going only one way?
« Last Edit: October 12, 2018, 08:34:30 AM by BlueAngel »

#### BlueAngel

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##### Re: Something to ponder
« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2018, 09:11:46 AM »
What is the difference between a system, a strategy and a method?
Or are they synonyms?

What is the difference between a progression and money management?
Or is it just a different way to say the same?

If someone believes that he is going to lose because he won previously then why not bet for the opposite of whatever he won?

Running away is like predicting a doom for whatever someones bets, so if something loses it is because something else wins, if you really believe in forthcoming disaster for whatever your method is then why don't you bet the opposite?

Running away is not a solution, the game continues anyway, whether it is after 1 hour, after 1 day, after 1 month, after 1 year...the only thing which matters is HOW the game will continue.

When someone is tired or bored that's totally understandable, but don't insult my intelligence that by hit and run you are gaining some kind of advantage!
Do not fool yourselves!
Coming back, whenever or wherever that might be, is the continuation of your personal record, just that, not positive or negative.

If your strategy cannot handle the swings of variance then running away would not help much, by losing less doesn't make one a winner.
I don't believe there is pleasure in losing in general.

Perhaps it's time to turn the page, it's never too late!

#### Dane

##### Re: Something to ponder
« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2018, 10:29:00 AM »
You ask many questions
More or them have to do with TIME. We are still trapped in time, and our ability to transcend it must be rather limited. The basic probabilities, however, are not restricted to one particular time or place.
So we should feel free to mix spins from different tables and times randomly. The statistics from such  mixtures should not differ from other lists of spins.

I don´t know what this "Law" is called in English. In German it is called:
DAS GESETZ DER UNENDLICHKEIT DER PERMANENZ.

#### scepticus

##### Re: Something to ponder
« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2018, 12:15:43 PM »
Many questions Angelo . You certainly  have been thinking.A couple of points though.Money Management is how  you MANAGE your MONEY so is used with flat betting and progressiin.Hit and Run has no advantage . I use it to pocket profit which I don't give back to the casino  thus reducing any later loss. Mathematicians agree with Hit and  Run .Not that we  should agree with everything they say but what I am trying to do is to argue against their pedantic ,disparaging , smug point of view.LOT ?  Repeats happen but only AFTER the number has appeared .Thanks again Angelo .

##### Re: Something to ponder
« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2018, 04:45:21 PM »

we can Manufacture our own spins, ect...all the same .
all we see on the Marquis is all a big illusion to make us think we can gain "control", nothing more.
Odds are no respector of "places, dont have EYES, just follow YOU wherever you play.
Odds are giving you "what time it is" for luck to come, or not. use the ODDS is only what matters.
numbers dont matter, Odds do, one different number every spins, when it is your time, WILL BE SUFFICIENT for you to win. lose when you have little or no money and win when you have good money on the game. look at your ODDS, or watch, and be at the right place at the right time. great topics.

#### BlueAngel

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##### Re: Something to ponder
« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2018, 05:44:40 PM »
You ask many questions
More or them have to do with TIME. We are still trapped in time, and our ability to transcend it must be rather limited. The basic probabilities, however, are not restricted to one particular time or place.
So we should feel free to mix spins from different tables and times randomly. The statistics from such  mixtures should not differ from other lists of spins.

I don´t know what this "Law" is called in English. In German it is called:
DAS GESETZ DER UNENDLICHKEIT DER PERMANENZ.

My original purpose was to create a thought provocative subject in which anyone could respond in the way he/she sees fit.
I'm not expecting particular responses, but I do have a genuine interest in "seeing" through others' eyes.

Thanks for participating

#### BlueAngel

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##### Re: Something to ponder
« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2018, 06:12:58 PM »
Many questions Angelo . You certainly  have been thinking.A couple of points though.Money Management is how  you MANAGE your MONEY so is used with flat betting and progressiin.Hit and Run has no advantage . I use it to pocket profit which I don't give back to the casino  thus reducing any later loss. Mathematicians agree with Hit and  Run .Not that we  should agree with everything they say but what I am trying to do is to argue against their pedantic ,disparaging , smug point of view.LOT ?  Repeats happen but only AFTER the number has appeared .Thanks again Angelo .

We have a brain so why not to put it in good use (?).

So in a way progression is money management from one bet to the next and money management could be described as a progression which has been scaled in time in order to function in the background and to affect the longer term.

As weird it might sound, there is not equivalent word in Greek language for progression, neither for variance.
We can describe these procedures but there's lack of etymological definition.

In my consideration the "stop while ahead" is just an illusion simply because we don't know what is ahead.
Would be the same continuation, a path to disaster, a stairway to heaven and for how long?
A player could damage his budget not only by continuing but also by not doing so.
How about not taking advantage of missed wins, balance is the accumulation of loss and profit.
Therefore we cannot look only one side of the coin when it has 2.

My statement is also in contrast with the author quoted in the opening post.

#### BlueAngel

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##### Re: Something to ponder
« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2018, 07:07:58 PM »

we can Manufacture our own spins, ect...all the same .
all we see on the Marquis is all a big illusion to make us think we can gain "control", nothing more.
Odds are no respector of "places, dont have EYES, just follow YOU wherever you play.
Odds are giving you "what time it is" for luck to come, or not. use the ODDS is only what matters.
numbers dont matter, Odds do, one different number every spins, when it is your time, WILL BE SUFFICIENT for you to win. lose when you have little or no money and win when you have good money on the game. look at your ODDS, or watch, and be at the right place at the right time. great topics.

So in a way we have something we call variance which expresses itself in an illusionary and deceptive manner.
No matter how many times we observe the same occasion we always don't know, sounds like a paradox to me, would you agree?

Yes, I acknowledge that odds/payouts are constant, fixed, set in tomb stone, but results are not so fixed in the way they unfold.

The shorter payouts in regards with probability would make sense by assuming that every single player around the world would had equal wins and losses regardless of what they bet and when they bet it.
Perhaps it doesn't make sense on individual basis, but as a total could tend to balance, however, it is tendency and expectation, not certainty.

Let me put it this way, if for some reason you happen to knew the forthcoming results, then could you tell if I was going to lose when you don't know what I'm going to bet?
If results are changing due to variance the same could be applied to a betting method.
My point is that nothing is certain before it happens!

A simple and practical test you could do in order to confirm what I'm saying is to check every 100 results how many times an EC came, even with 0 in between there is always 1 EC which will generate net profit regardless of the House Edge.
That EC is not always the same and we cannot be sure about which is going to be this time, but we can be sure that at least 1 will be well ahead.

House Edge is artificial and nothing which is man made is perfect, specifically is not flawed but insufficient to prevent someone to be long term winner.

Let's imagine 37 runners competing for the 1st place in a marathon of 37 km, at some point, 1 of them gets ahead, would it be reasonable to assume that since that competitor is closer to the end then most likely is going to finish first?
The leaders take a lead, observe how far are their followers and rest for a while, when the runners reach or get really close to the leader then he decides to run again in order to maintain his lead...

##### Re: Something to ponder
« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2018, 12:59:10 AM »

Angel I dont think you anderstood me.

the only think you should observe is your personal situation with the odds and how you have been doing.
nothing to do with the marquis and what it tells you.
nothing is certain and I never said otherwise. thinking out the box is what i am talking about.
I have won a lot of units in the past two years, and it has nothing to do with what the Marquis is showing.
Variance is the result of Odds only. every player should know where they stand with them on a personal level, by checking their bookeeping results. odds will catch up eventually to your play, not necessary how much you bet, which is the player's biggest advantage. we dont have to play through variance going against us if we chose not to, but we can place money on the table when the tides turn in our favor right ?
at the end of thousands of spins been played we all will get pretty much the same amounts of reds,blacks,streets,lines,ect... all of us.
the only difference will be the amounts of units one player would be betting during these times on the layouts.
that will be the ONLY DIFference between all of us and that .
even if all of us were to play only red and black, the times when we bets will define our outcome in the long run.
remember this here; what do the casinos love more then anything else for a player to do ?
no matter if you play small stakes or not, WHAT DO THEY WANT YOU TO DO AND EVERY PLAYERS ?
YOU SPENDING AS MUCH TIME AT THE TABLE AS POSSIBLE. THEY WANT THAT BADLY.
but why? because the odds in their favor only WORK WHEN YOU PLAY ALL THE SPINS THEY GIVE YOU.
why should we give them that honor ?
when a player wins they want you to stay as long as possible for the ODDS TO CATCH UP AGAINST YOU.
and they can do that pretty quickly most of the time as we all know.

Cheers,

#### BlueAngel

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##### Re: Something to ponder
« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2018, 01:30:59 AM »
Time is a universal currency in life, could be nothing or everything, all it matters is how you use it.

It would be absurd to say that after 30 minutes or after +30 units the luck changes!
Luck or variance doesn't work this way.

##### Re: Something to ponder
« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2018, 04:06:18 PM »

and even more absurd to think that after 30 minutes or 30 units your luck WONT CHANGE. it is always changing.

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#### BlueAngel

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##### Re: Something to ponder
« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2018, 05:33:08 PM »
You never know when a swing in variance is going to occur, it could be right from the start for a bad sequence to happen and when it does (good or bad) you never know when it is going to end.
Winning a few is easier than winning many, but even something so humble as 1 unit profit is not guaranteed.

We cannot set a tag and declare/determine that after say 10 units profit bad things happen, fixed amounts of profit and/or time can never indicate how variance works, when it changes, how long lasts...etc.

If you are not prepared for variance, on roulette which is its domain, then you are trying to avoid it, it's like trying to get into a safe-house in order to snatch quickly a few things and disappear, perhaps you'd be successful for a few times but it doesn't work for many times.

Thus you should be prepared to lose since you don't know how to deal with it.

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#### BlueAngel

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##### Re: Something to ponder
« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2018, 07:56:09 PM »
"I'm looking back and feel proud for what I did, now I'm looking forward and feel confident about what I'll do."

-How much is enough profit out of any given session?

-It depends from the mood, about 10,000 Pesos is fine.

One of the many lifetime achievements was that Caleb and Reyth have been muted.
If I wanted this kind of noise then I'd not have to look any further than my bed where my wife sleeps...the fingers reach for an unresponsive cock, the fallacious mirage is being reborn everyday.

The pit which has been designed for reckless persons such as me is the ultimate punishment, in this house there is a horror beyond belief, one has to die and be reborn many times over and over in agony.
From the visitors of the commonplace I see one who is me 10 years ago, I see another who I don't recognize because is me 10 years later.

"Be careful how you walk because I laid down my dreams and you might step on them."
« Last Edit: November 04, 2018, 07:58:03 PM by BlueAngel »