Author Topic: The SOCALLED Law of the Thirds  (Read 1328 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Dane

The SOCALLED Law of the Thirds
« on: August 13, 2018, 06:53:12 AM »
No, it might not be a LAW at all. But it is a popular assumption that in most cases 37 spins  let approx. 2/3 of the 37 numbers come out.

Much more precisely:
In a German post (written by Hans Dampf in Roulette-forum.de) I recently read that IN AVERAGE

              13.4 numbers should not come out at all
              13.8       -           -        appear once
                6.9       -           -           -         twice
                2.2       -           -           -        exactly three times
                0.6       -           -           -       more than  -       -    .
« Last Edit: August 13, 2018, 06:55:50 AM by Dane »
 

Scarface

Re: The SOCALLED Law of the Thirds
« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2018, 09:30:06 PM »
Repeats are very predictable how they fall.  On average, by the time the final non hit finally does hit, the hottest number has repeated 9 times.
 

Mako

Re: The SOCALLED Law of the Thirds
« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2018, 10:14:36 PM »
It's the basis of everything pretty much, even Vaddi mentioned it as a cornerstone.

When I get bored I just do a basic version of Turbo's repeater system in RX using real spins, with a 1-25-50-100 progression, or as he sometimes uses, a 6-step 5-10-15-20-25-30 progression. 

And it wins! 

But the balls it takes to play it are just elephant-sized, you can get so far down before that magic next repeater hits that I wouldn't ever try it in a real casino unless I knew it inside/outside/backwards as he does...and could lose multiple times without destroying the BR.

Exciting to play though, even for funny money.
 

mr j

Re: The SOCALLED Law of the Thirds
« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2018, 10:44:50 PM »
"But the balls it takes to play it are just elephant-sized" >> Yet again, a conversation regarding something NOT playable. It looks pretty on paper, nothing else.

Ken
 

Scarface

Re: The SOCALLED Law of the Thirds
« Reply #4 on: August 13, 2018, 11:01:28 PM »
My preference for repeaters is to play the most recent 3 or 4 to repeat again.  Better than playing too many numbers with steep progressions  :)
 
The following users thanked this post: mr j

heatmap

Re: The SOCALLED Law of the Thirds
« Reply #5 on: August 14, 2018, 01:42:49 AM »
my first "prediction" application consisted of finding out how long it took for 38 numbers to come out in the bally digital roulette machines. i would bet $1 on a spin and would bet a different number every time. the goal was to not randomize, but spread out the numbers i would bet, evenly, so that the machine woudnt see a pattern, although that in itself is a pattern. I would eventually change my definition, of what a spin was, and that there is no such thing as a single spin, and that there is always a repeater. Every number is a repeat, a distance of time away from the last repeat, even when a wheel is brand new. The numbers that come up are the first repeat of many. This had also led me to be even for every spin, unless i would start to become impatient and bet randomly from not making money, and then the losses would come ;)
 

mr j

Re: The SOCALLED Law of the Thirds
« Reply #6 on: August 14, 2018, 02:53:51 AM »
That law of the third thingie is fine and dandy but the USUAL obstacles exist >> WHEN during the 37/38 spin cycle do you get your 3rd hit? If you do get it, continue on with that SAME number?

Lets say you have many 2peats, you get a couple 3rd hits but a loss for that cycle because of SO MANY 2peats, now what?  Having 2peaters early and your wins LATE, does you no good. Again, its hindsight, nothing we can do about that !! ETC. ETC.

Ken
 
 

Scarface

Re: The SOCALLED Law of the Thirds
« Reply #7 on: August 14, 2018, 05:17:34 PM »

Lets say you have many 2peats, you get a couple 3rd hits but a loss for that cycle because of SO MANY 2peats, now what?  Having 2peaters early and your wins LATE, does you no good. Again, its hindsight, nothing we can do about that !! ETC. ETC.

Ken

This info is based on someone else's testing on another site.  But, according to his testing, there are an average # of 4 repeaters show up before one of them becomes a 3rd repeater (4.77 to be exact).

I would limit the number of repeaters played no more than 4 or 5...maybe the most recent, to avoid playing too many numbers.
 

mr j

Re: The SOCALLED Law of the Thirds
« Reply #8 on: August 14, 2018, 06:30:57 PM »
I've had it before.......12 2peaters BEFORE my first 3peat. Thats a lot.

The *WHEN* of it is the killer.
 

mr j

Re: The SOCALLED Law of the Thirds
« Reply #9 on: August 14, 2018, 06:41:40 PM »
I've had it before.......12 2peaters BEFORE my first 3peat. Thats a lot.

The *WHEN* of it is the killer.


We know WHAT will happen because of the stats but the WHEN of it is mostly hindsight.

Ken
 

Dane

Re: The SOCALLED Law of the Thirds
« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2018, 01:59:53 PM »
We never know WHAT will happen NEXT! The " Law of the Thirds" only tells ud what happens ON AGERAGE. A snapshot of the most likely distribution right after 37 spins from a roulette with 37 numbers. Some of us might be so obsessed with repeats that we tend to forget numbers performing only one time.   If you reread my first post on this subject, you´ll see  that on average 13.8 numbers ought to appear exactly once. And how many reappearing numbers should we see? Only 9.8 numbers.  Of course these fewer repeats grew out of "oners". So there is a good chance to see even more "oners" before the 37th spin. Like birds of the same feather they may flock together. Even within some streets.
I am sure that Ken and others must have seen complete streets with no reappearing numbers. :)
« Last Edit: August 18, 2018, 02:04:56 PM by Dane »
 

dobbelsteen

Re: The SOCALLED Law of the Thirds
« Reply #11 on: August 19, 2018, 08:34:01 AM »
The Bayes coupon theory learns a lot about the 2/3 rule.

You can define repeat in different ways. What is the definition of repeat in this thread.
 

Trilobite

Re: The SOCALLED Law of the Thirds
« Reply #12 on: August 19, 2018, 09:48:00 AM »
Did mr j quote himself for the very next post in this thread?

WTF? I mean it's right there, above the new post....RIGHT THERE, FFS!

I thought we weren't even supposed to use the quote function around here? Certainly not to quote YOURSELF on the next post...who does that anyway?

(ROFL)
« Last Edit: August 19, 2018, 09:50:38 AM by Trilobite »
 
The following users thanked this post: mr j

Dane

Re: The SOCALLED Law of the Thirds
« Reply #13 on: August 19, 2018, 10:02:44 AM »
To dobbelsteen: When I wrote "repeat",  I was simply thinking of any number performing more than once in a test.