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Author Topic: How I Play palestis' Single Dozen System  (Read 2955 times)

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Mako

How I Play palestis' Single Dozen System
« on: August 05, 2018, 11:06:21 PM »
ani26 motivated me to post my experiences so far with the Single Dozen System, and the modified way I'm using it, the quick read is that it's enjoyable to play and can be the basis of a lot experimentation.

I've played around with all the different versions of palestis' method the past month for fun, putting them all through the hardest scenario I have access to (0/00 wheel, RX RNG).

After thousands of spins, the highest ROI and profitability for me under that scenario came from the following:

-I play the YXX trigger only.

-I perform one single virtual loss spin after the YXX trigger appears to start the betting sequence, followed by four actual progressive bet spins instead of three.  I use a customized 4-bet progression that is similar to the other popular ones on the board: 1-1-2-3 / 4-5-6-7 / 7-8-9-11 / 14-17-21-21 / 25-30-36-43.

-For recovery I go down two levels of 4 from the progression and use it as a base until back to the level prior to the loss. If I got the progressive win at say a 14u bet level, I would go down and start recovery at the 4u bet.

-I play both columns and dozens. I do play them simultaneously when their triggers are active at the same time, but that's not advised on a 00 wheel for obvious reasons. I still do it though, the rush of winning them both on one number is hard to resist...

-I play almost all of the red flags as they didn't wind up making a significant difference in hitrate % after moving to four bet spins + a single virtual loss spin prior.

-The only red flag I do obey is there must be a single non-Y hit prior to the trigger YXX. So YZYXX is ok, but ZYYXX is not. Adding more Y non-hits as Terminator did (+3) etc didn't turn out to dramatically affect the hitrate %.

-The 0/00 is counted in the trigger sequence. If it shows up during a trigger it's a play for me if it's right after the Y. So if there's a sequence of Y0XX, then I'm playing it for the Y, but again with a virtual loss spin to start the 4 bet spins. With 00 in the mix this exact sequence seems to show up constantly. I would not play a Y0X sequence, only Y0XX.

With these parameters, the numbers for me are the following through 4332 spins, with 735 triggers that met all of the criteria above and were played:

Winrate = 82.4%, which is where it's expected to be...actually it's even a little low for a 4-event shot at a target with 31.58% actual odds (12/38).

As the math guys have said, we're not creating an actual mathmatical edge with this system...it's just creative betting and putting probability in our favor. Mike called it  "just a martingale on the dozens" and he's not wrong. But it's won much more than it's lost for me so far, as fallacy systems go it's better than most...even on RNG.

Average units earned = 16u per every 100 spins.

If you get down it can take ages to get back unless you go apes*** on the progression, which I don't allow myself to do.  I'm trying to make it as mechanical as possible.  Typically (as in, more than 65% of the time thus far) the game is up 20u prior to the 75th spin.  Then it hits some B2B nonsense, with chop right after, and suddenly you're in a -50u hole that has to be made up, which is why the average spins per session should be planned for around 200.  Hit and Run works well provided you're willing to endure the time and spins necessary to recover if s*** hits the fan.

Worst sequence I've seen = B2B2B, or three sets of 4x losses in a row. Worse is out there, it's only a matter of time, but if you're up enough units by the time it hits, maybe it's not a concern.

Recommended Target/Stoploss based on the data = So far it looks like a +30u/-150u stoploss would work well for a typical 150 spin session at actual B&M.  Lets call it 3 hours of play at a non-crowded table, or 2 hours on airball. 

It hasn't lost yet, never being down enough to trigger-150u stoploss over that span of 4332 spins, the lowest it's been is -129u. But this IS a fallacy method..it will hit some B2B2B2B2B outlier or some s*** and your ass will be out to the parking lot like the building caught fire. Right now it's sitting at +633u in the positive, so a -150u stoploss or two doesn't seem too out of bounds as a walk away limit.

Once I get to 10,000 spins worth of trigger performance data (approximately 1600 triggers played) I'll re-evaluate where I'm at with these conditions and see if I want to modify it again.  For RX RNG on a 00 wheel, these particular choices have worked the best out of all the longer spin studies I've done (approximately 20k total spins thrown at other version of palestis original formula).  I would hope the actual performance on a real wheel, with just a single zero, would be superior, which is why I've tired to throw the hardest barrier at the system from the start.

So far I've only had a chance to try it live at B&M once, and in 67 spins it produced +13u of profit.  With $5 units it wasn't hard to see the potential of the 1VL+4BetSpins variant. 

Thanks to palestis for starting the thought process on this, and for the other thread contributors who participated originally.

Out of all the fallacy stuff we see on all the forums week after week after week, this one has the best ability to dance between the raindrops that I've seen.  It's not a grail, it will lose, but you may spend a lot of weeks...or months even...earning enough positive profit that it doesn't matter if it fails a few times.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2018, 11:09:47 PM by Mako »
 
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palestis

Re: How I Play palestis' Single Dozen System
« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2018, 12:10:35 AM »
Mako
What is the value of your starting chip?
If it is low enough you can certainly go for a 4 spin scenario with the first being a virtual loss (just as you said you are doing). In fact HARRYJ was playing 4 spins per trigger without any virtual loss.
But his starting chip was very very low.
Where I am the minimum is $10 for 2 roulettes and the rest $15 and 2 for $25.
According to your progression for 4 spins, a $15 starting chip can run into a lot of money if back to back losses happened.
The point is , to play with $10 and $15, it will require a B/R like over $2000.
And that can't be your last lifesavings.
So the use of virtual losses, becomes more import as the chip value goes up.
A $15 starting chip maybe ok for a well to do player, but for an ordinary player it's a lot of money if b2b losses occur.
And if he has no choice to play in a roulette that accepts small chips like $1, then he has no other option but to make extensive use of virtual losses.
In a B+M casino with plenty of roulettes around, it doesn't take long to spot 2 virtual losses
if you back count on the score board.
You don't really have to wait by the table to witness virtual losses as they unfold in front of you.
But I will be interested to see how the 4 spin scenario works for you.

 
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GIAJJENNO

Re: How I Play palestis' Single Dozen System
« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2018, 12:16:46 AM »
Mako, thanks. And your last sentence was one of the truest sentence I have read in this forum.

I will try it.
 
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Third

Re: How I Play palestis' Single Dozen System
« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2019, 06:51:17 AM »
Excellent post Mako!  You are a true artist and roulette grinder! :D
 

UnlikelySam

Re: How I Play palestis' Single Dozen System
« Reply #4 on: May 15, 2019, 10:05:31 AM »
Return of the Mak... 8)

Excellent post Mako... Nice share... I agree the strongest trigger by far is YXX with a VL combo lol I sometimes even add 2 VL just for extra measure  and then go for the " Kill " for 4 spins when I play Palestis Single dozens... Probably overkill :o ...

Awesome awesome system... Did I mention Awesome ;D
 

MickyP

Re: How I Play palestis' Single Dozen System
« Reply #5 on: May 15, 2019, 02:21:25 PM »
Interesting approach Mako; thanks for posting.

I haven't got the exact percentage but playing on B/M casino tables I normally get a lot of hits on the first spin after the trigger. The fact that you play 4 spins is in line with my play  but how much difference is there between betting on spin one or spin five?

You get trigger YXX (three spins)
First spin after the trigger is virtual so no cash outlay.
You then bet on spins 2, 3, 4, and 5.
That is 8 spins per game including the trigger spins.

Time is money and 8 spins on a B/M casino table per game is slow. What slows it down even more is waiting for the YXX trigger to show. You mentioned 16 units profit per 100 spins. How many games do you manage in 100 spins? What capital outlay is there to win the 16 units?
I'm just looking at the practical application of your observations in a B/M casino. I can play about 200 spins a day on a B/M table so about 8 hours of play should nett me about 32 units profit a day. That's less than half my daily goal!

Harry played rolling triggers and I think he was quite successful in his approach. To me, this would be the way to go when on a B/M table.

My approach is playing every trigger formed but reducing the 12 numbers of the dozen to 8 numbers. Tricky but the triggers help to identify a target dozen and bet selection within the dozen is subject to past spins. Like you say, a fallacy but it works good enough to produce positive results day in and day out. I hardly ever play one method exclusively but each method must be valued both in profit and time.

 
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Third

Re: How I Play palestis' Single Dozen System
« Reply #6 on: May 15, 2019, 04:10:02 PM »
I would like to point out that Pales will play "rolling tables"; i.e. multiple marquees.
 
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MickyP

Re: How I Play palestis' Single Dozen System
« Reply #7 on: May 15, 2019, 07:18:35 PM »
Yes he would but not every table in a line. He will select a "qualified" table to play and then qualify a new table to play that has positive spin history for the method.

I know this is what you meant...lol
 
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Mako

Re: How I Play palestis' Single Dozen System
« Reply #8 on: June 05, 2019, 07:02:10 PM »
I didn't even see this thread had some action in it lately, nice boys.

I still play that variant when possible, but I don't have access to online where I live, and my local B&Ms don't have multiple tables to monitor simultaneously for the trigger.  That's my only issue, otherwise I'd play it frequently, I need to move...!  :-\

As Micky mentioned, time IS money, and should be a 'measurable' in any method to determine whether it's successful, because honestly we're not there to make minimum wage.  And increasing the base unit sometimes doesn't apply, as you're hitting table limits that are horribly low.

The online guys don't have this problem with any method, as they can either spin at will, or monitor 10+ table feeds at once before they strike.
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: How I Play palestis' Single Dozen System
« Reply #9 on: June 06, 2019, 03:13:14 PM »
Maco,  think twice before moving. .  There is 99.99% chance that you will not be able to make money at this game.
   If destiny suddenly decides to make you a winning player, it will offer you possibility to play.
   I never dreamed l will be a roulette player. Entire universe was in conspiracy to make me one. Right people, ideas,  situations, experiences. ..  looking back in time... if l consider possibility of it..  same 0.01%.
 
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palestis

Re: How I Play palestis' Single Dozen System
« Reply #10 on: June 06, 2019, 10:50:35 PM »
Does that 99.99%  losing chance  apply to all players (including the ones in the forum)?
Are you serious? And are you the 0.001% that can win?
 
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Third

Re: How I Play palestis' Single Dozen System
« Reply #11 on: June 07, 2019, 01:14:22 AM »
Apparently he is.  Its extremely difficult to beat roulette.  Maybe you are so accustomed to it for so many years?
 

palestis

Re: How I Play palestis' Single Dozen System
« Reply #12 on: June 07, 2019, 01:51:20 AM »
It's not as difficult as they make it out  to be. And I don't claim to be an expert. I just try to determine what's the worst that can happen thru extensive testing. Then I figure out the range of bets that I can afford to bet before it reaches the worst case scenario
 
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scepticus

Re: How I Play palestis' Single Dozen System
« Reply #13 on: June 07, 2019, 02:24:02 AM »
Perhaps, Mr Perfect , you will provide the stats that show 99.99% of roulette playerd lose ?

 
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Third

Re: How I Play palestis' Single Dozen System
« Reply #14 on: June 10, 2019, 10:57:35 PM »
Hey Mako, I do want to point out that Pales plays 2 VL's and then 2 real bets, where the second real bet does not require any VL's.  Did you get a new set of VL's after every loss (i.e. 4 lost bets, new VL, new trigger, 4 lost bets, new VL, new trigger etc.)?
« Last Edit: June 10, 2019, 10:59:41 PM by Third »