### Author Topic: the kelly criterion  (Read 1879 times)

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#### heatmap

##### the kelly criterion
« on: April 01, 2018, 03:32:33 PM »
has anyone ever heard of this? i cant seem to find one single mention within the forum?

i pulled this one from "The perfect bet" by adam kucharski

its goes like this

the amount you should bet = expected winnings / by the net winnings if you win

The following users thanked this post: Reyth

#### Reyth

##### Re: the kelly criterion
« Reply #1 on: April 01, 2018, 04:10:34 PM »

#### MrPerfect.

##### Re: the kelly criterion
« Reply #2 on: April 01, 2018, 04:40:37 PM »
That's how you supposed to be betting. Somewhere on forum was a link to calculator app for Kelly criterion

#### Reyth

##### Re: the kelly criterion
« Reply #3 on: April 01, 2018, 06:29:56 PM »
I'm thinking of making one.

#### MrPerfect.

##### Re: the kelly criterion
« Reply #4 on: April 01, 2018, 08:20:43 PM »
Kelly is not system friendly.... A Players already got it.

#### heatmap

##### Re: the kelly criterion
« Reply #5 on: April 01, 2018, 08:34:54 PM »
@mrperfect wikipedia even says its not gambling friendly

#### MrPerfect.

##### Re: the kelly criterion
« Reply #6 on: April 01, 2018, 08:56:19 PM »
Yes...it isn't.
With -2.73% edge it will calculate a negative amount to bet.
However if edge is positive, it's a friendliest way to bet , be it in roulette or anywhere else.

#### Reyth

##### Re: the kelly criterion
« Reply #7 on: April 01, 2018, 10:02:06 PM »
Its basically an up as you win, down as you lose divisor system.

#### MrPerfect.

##### Re: the kelly criterion
« Reply #8 on: April 01, 2018, 10:39:21 PM »
Easiest way to look to it as flat bet. You always bet same % of your bankroll. If bank grow, bet grow, bank go down- bet goes down.
To calculate proper % of bank to bet, need to know % edge in your favor. If % edge is negative, Kelly advice negative bet... wich you can not place for obvious reasons.
I use modified Kelly. .. flat minimum on start, Kelly on the few wins up to table max, then flat bet on max...

The following users thanked this post: Reyth

#### Reyth

##### Re: the kelly criterion
« Reply #9 on: April 02, 2018, 01:11:18 AM »
Ahhhh!  Nice!

What if there is no table max (serious question)?

#### kav

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##### Re: the kelly criterion
« Reply #10 on: April 02, 2018, 02:37:26 AM »
Basically Kelly criterion tells you to bet the same percentage of your bankroll as your advantage. Theoretically, since in roulette the player has no advantage the Kelly tells to not play at all. There can be other interpretations however. The original Kelly paper was published in 1956 and called: "A New Interpretation of Information Rate"

https://www.roulette-bet.com/2015/02/martingale-progressions-and-kelly.html

#### MrPerfect.

##### Re: the kelly criterion
« Reply #11 on: April 02, 2018, 09:25:41 AM »
Ahhhh!  Nice!

What if there is no table max (serious question)?
In this case they will kill the player, or player will become owner of all money in the world.

#### heatmap

##### Re: the kelly criterion
« Reply #12 on: April 10, 2018, 12:24:49 PM »
@kav so you might as well walk I into the casino and give them 2.5 cents out of every dollar in your pocket and leave without gambling thenot?