Author Topic: The Bad Run.  (Read 1839 times)

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MickyP

The Bad Run.
« on: March 08, 2018, 06:12:57 AM »
The bad run or "run from hell" pops up in threads like a biased number.

Do you only recognise a bad run when it's too late to take evasive action?

How often do you experience a bad run?

How can we use a bad run to our benefit?

Finally; What do you consider to be a bad run?
« Last Edit: March 08, 2018, 06:16:04 AM by MickyP »
 
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kav

Re: The Bad Run.
« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2018, 06:55:25 AM »
Very good question. I wish I could write a whole article about it.
 
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Reyth

Re: The Bad Run.
« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2018, 07:11:18 AM »
How often do you experience a bad run?
Less often than it takes to earn the total drawdown.

Quote
How can we use a bad run to our benefit?
Act in a manner that will allow recovery as quickly as possible without losing the bank.

Quote
What do you consider to be a bad run?
The isolated examples of the worst drawdowns that have ever been seen.

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Do you only recognise a bad run when it's too late to take evasive action?
Not if the above hold true.
« Last Edit: March 08, 2018, 07:14:05 AM by Reyth »
 

MickyP

Re: The Bad Run.
« Reply #3 on: March 08, 2018, 08:39:57 AM »
A bad run is used in generalised talk but it is in fact very specific to a betting method.

A bad run will occur with Palestis Single dozen system when back to back losses take place. The same sequence of numbers may yield back to back wins for a different method.

How to give generalised advice about a method specific issue is the real challenge here.
Kav, maybe it's a good idea to write a detailed article on the subject.
 

Fyodor

Re: The Bad Run.
« Reply #4 on: March 10, 2018, 10:14:49 PM »
Bad runs can be avoided by understanding the road signs and heeding them, by not driving like a maniac when conditions are adverse, (fog, ice, heavy traffic) and by taking evasive action when the driver on the other side of the road is trying to run you down.
As you gain experience, your insurance premiums will fall, your expertise will rise, and you will understand the need for regular rest breaks, to maintain your "driving" skills.

 
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Reyth

Re: The Bad Run.
« Reply #5 on: March 10, 2018, 10:20:49 PM »
Awesome post Fyodor.  Still have your info and I need to review it! :D
 
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scepticus

Re: The Bad Run.
« Reply #6 on: March 11, 2018, 01:02:14 AM »
I think the answer depends on what you mean by a Bad Run.
How can you  know you are approaching a bad run if you are not yet in one ?
If you  do know what a bad run is then you  could limit your losses  by stopping when you reach a  point where a bad  run is nearly due. A  Table Loss Limit .
 

palestis

Re: The Bad Run.
« Reply #7 on: March 11, 2018, 01:35:27 AM »
A bad run is unique for every system.
 A bad run for one system might be a normal run for another.
4  unsuccessful bets on 2 dozens is a bad run, but for a single dozen is normal. 
Only long term tests will reveal the worst possible scenario and every thing coming close to that will be a bad run.
The way to avoid it is to stop before you go thru the entire run. Maybe half way thru.
You may miss an opportunity but you may suffer a big loss.
Usually after a bad run a good run comes along.
Bad runs don't come back to back
 
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Reyth

Re: The Bad Run.
« Reply #8 on: March 11, 2018, 01:36:55 AM »
Right, for me the actual "bad run" is 4 repeated sections of bad runs that are strung together sequentially but separated by completely fresh sessions.
 

MickyP

Re: The Bad Run.
« Reply #9 on: March 11, 2018, 07:42:31 AM »

If you  do know what a bad run is then you  could limit your losses  by stopping when you reach a  point where a bad  run is nearly due. A  Table Loss Limit .

Words from the block. You don't use Stop Loss in case you forgot. You can not predict a bad run.

« Last Edit: March 11, 2018, 12:39:35 PM by Reyth »
 

scepticus

Re: The Bad Run.
« Reply #10 on: March 11, 2018, 11:21:28 AM »

" You could " does not mean " I Do " .

You must have misunderstood  what I meant by "How can you know you are approaching a bad run if you are not already in one ? " You are being deliberately selective here.

« Last Edit: March 11, 2018, 12:35:41 PM by Reyth »
 

MickyP

Re: The Bad Run.
« Reply #11 on: March 11, 2018, 11:34:56 AM »
Why suggest something that you presumably binned?

This changed the discussion with MrPerfect.  I asked a legitimate question.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2018, 12:33:54 PM by Reyth »
 

Reyth

Re: The Bad Run.
« Reply #12 on: March 11, 2018, 12:34:51 PM »
Let's learn from each other about bad runs according to our experience.  The bad runs win if we make things personal?

Sorry but I edited the most recent posts to remove any inflammatory verbiage.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2018, 12:38:08 PM by Reyth »
 

scepticus

Re: The Bad Run.
« Reply #13 on: March 11, 2018, 01:14:41 PM »
"Why suggest something that you presumably binned?"
because we are engaging in a discussion and should consider views other than our own.
Because I don't have a stop loss  does not mean that others shouldn't.
 
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MickyP

Re: The Bad Run.
« Reply #14 on: March 11, 2018, 02:43:21 PM »
You bin something because it doesn't work.
If you believe it doesn't work then why suggest it?
« Last Edit: March 11, 2018, 04:16:24 PM by Reyth »