Author Topic: ....and this I dont get  (Read 2387 times)

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mr j

....and this I dont get
« on: February 22, 2018, 05:59:46 AM »
There are some members that test/post BOTH flat and using progressions. Okay, I still dont agree with it but I can live with it. What I dont get, there are many members that test/post progressions ONLY.

In their YOUNG roulette careers, they have never had a minute of interest in flat betting. That is crazy!

So its a progression or nothing? It shows the culture of the inexperienced.

Ken
 

Reyth

Re: ....and this I dont get
« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2018, 06:43:56 AM »
I agree that a system that is based on flat betting is certainly stronger.  The reason we use progressions is because of negative variance.  We wouldn't need progressions if it was just the house edge.
 

Trilobite

Re: ....and this I dont get
« Reply #2 on: February 22, 2018, 06:49:58 AM »
I only ever flat bet on 4 numbers, with conditions of course.

Here is my flat bet schedule...

1.2.3.1.2.3.1.2.3.1.2.3.1.2.3.1.2.3.1.2.3.1.2.3.2.4.6.2.4.6.2.
4.6.2.4.6.1.2.3.1.2.3.1.2.3.1.2.3.2.4.6.2.4.6.2.4.6.2.4.6.3.6.
9.3.6.9.3.6.9.3.6.9.1.2.3.1.2.3.1.2.3.1.2.3.2.4.6.2.4.6.2.4.6.
2.4.6.3.6.9.3.6.9.3.6.9.3.6.9.5.10.15.5.10.15.5.10.15.5.10.15

...You're welcome!
« Last Edit: February 22, 2018, 06:52:17 AM by Reyth »
 
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mr j

Re: ....and this I dont get
« Reply #3 on: February 22, 2018, 06:51:02 AM »
I'm not insulting progressions here per say. I'm just asking, how can someone NEVER have an interest in flat betting?

Ken
 

Reyth

Re: ....and this I dont get
« Reply #4 on: February 22, 2018, 06:53:42 AM »
Its better and if we can exist while implementing it, everyone should do it.
 

Trilobite

Re: ....and this I dont get
« Reply #5 on: February 22, 2018, 06:55:12 AM »
In my honest opinion, what I posted above is a flat bet.

The cycle  represents what I'm willing to bet in total to reach a specified target, hence, flat bet.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2018, 07:12:22 AM by Trilobite »
 

Reyth

Re: ....and this I dont get
« Reply #6 on: February 22, 2018, 06:56:55 AM »
I'm more of a guy that flat bets like this:

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 (end session)
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 (end session)
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 etc.
 

mr j

Re: ....and this I dont get
« Reply #7 on: February 22, 2018, 06:58:33 AM »
@Reyth >> Based on no hit?
« Last Edit: February 22, 2018, 07:03:02 AM by mr j »
 

cht

Re: ....and this I dont get
« Reply #8 on: February 22, 2018, 07:08:21 AM »
If you use a 3steps progression,  have you tried a 1/1/1 alternative ? If it doesn't work with 1/1/1 it  gets more costly with 1/2/4 when it fails. Unless you think that mostly there's 3 deep variance. Remember every 4 deep variance cost you 7units instead of 3units. Which brings you back to whether your assumption that it's mostly 3 deep variance has to be right. What evidence do you have to make that assumption  ? None.

That's the problem with applying progression in the HOPE to somehow circumvent variance. Nobody likes losers - psychologically we are set up this way.

Now if you consider ONLY flat betting, the problem is you must have a net positive betselection for it to work. Do you have any betselection that's net positive ? None.

That leaves you with nothing. Since you cannot accept you have nothing it's back to your HOPE to circumvent variance based on some fancy looking betselection that somehow random will be fooled. And plaster on the tweaks to avoid the pitfalls .....
« Last Edit: February 22, 2018, 07:17:03 AM by cht »
 
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Jesper

Re: ....and this I dont get
« Reply #9 on: February 22, 2018, 07:12:20 AM »
A flat bettor must win over expected all the time stay in plus.  That means he think he knows which is due.
With no house advantages, it will be  difference. 

There is so many kinds of progressions, we can not count them all as a like.   For instance if we bet and win after 146 spins, used the same amount every spin, it is not sure the player betting flat. There can be a lot of progressions both positive and negative or combinations, still the same amount every spin.

We can even reduce the amount during the play.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2018, 07:18:07 AM by Jesper »
 
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mr j

Re: ....and this I dont get
« Reply #10 on: February 22, 2018, 07:17:38 AM »
USA womens hockey >>> GOLD BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 

mr j

Re: ....and this I dont get
« Reply #11 on: February 22, 2018, 07:21:47 AM »
"A flat bettor must win over expected all the time stay in plus" >> Well thats not true. If I am betting 3 numbers and dont get a hit in the first 12 spins, you are correct. I am NOW behind. Lets say in the next six spins I get two hits. I am now ahead in under 24 spins.

I dont always have to stay in the plus.

Ken
 
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Jesper

Re: ....and this I dont get
« Reply #12 on: February 22, 2018, 07:40:22 AM »
Of course not allways. We can have swings.  But still must overcome the house advantages, in your case probability 5.25%, which mean you must relay on luck or think you know what is due.

The double zero wheel, can not be beaten flat if all.

 

MickyP

Re: ....and this I dont get
« Reply #13 on: February 22, 2018, 08:19:53 AM »
I think this discussion will run FLAT like all the rest.
Betting protocol depends on the method being used. Is flat betting possible with some methods?...Yes. Is it safer to flat bet?...again Yes.
Is it practical to flat bet....Depends; this is where the dicussion will most definitely take a turn.
Step "flat betting" is a controlled and purpose driven progression. Paint it whatever colour you like, it's still a progression.
PROGRESSION should be clearly defined so discussions like this can provide learning substance where everyone understands points that are being made.

Are we here to learn, contribute and understand the game or are we here to convince players to see and play roulette like we do?

 

Jesper

Re: ....and this I dont get
« Reply #14 on: February 22, 2018, 08:51:20 AM »
Flat bets has the same risks. Using a parachute is a progression even if we use the same amount each spin.
Is removing a chip next bet a progression? No progression means allways increasing or start over.

I have methods betting all the same amount every spins, and that can be over 100. It is a progression as the chips are moved to places with higher return and risk, that can last for a few hundreds of spins.