### Author Topic: Casino Roulette Records  (Read 3214 times)

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#### BlueAngel

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##### Casino Roulette Records
« on: January 08, 2015, 05:27:11 PM »
I'm not an expert so I would like your help by answering me a few questions if you can.
Let's say we could gain access to a casino's archives and retrieve their records for all the tables,from the beginning of their operation.
Would that kind of information be practical useful??
Let me give you a hypothetical example in order to become less vague.
For example we see on these records that there are 12 streaks of 10 consecutive EC on 100,000 results.
Would be right to assume on the next 100,000 results would happen again 12 streaks of 10 consecutive EC events?
Also we could notice that between those streaks an average of 9,000 results occur,would this fact be sufficient to assume that we could use a martingale bet of 11 steps for let's say 7,000 results (less than 9,000) ?
Then stop and after the streak of consecutive EC happens,we start all over? Would that be correct assumption?
We could also assume that since a streak of 10 consecutive EC out of 100,000 results more rare than a streak of 7 in the same amount of results,we could use a the smaller streak (of 7) as an indicator of exit strategy.
Would that be correct? If streaks of 7 ECs in a row are more frequent than streaks of 10 ECs in a row,we should expect the shorter streak to happen before the larger one,right??

#### kav

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##### Re: Casino Roulette Records
« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2015, 05:38:10 PM »
Very interesting subject.

Yes, I believe they would be useful.
First of all, for the reasons all past spins are useful, and I have explained in this post in detail.
Secondly they could be useful in detecting wheel bias.
But I don't think that they would be useful in extracting such extreme event probabilities that you mention and act on them.

#### Romn.Paras

##### Re: Casino Roulette Records
« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2015, 03:57:48 AM »
Blue Angel,

Here is one such story that still amazes me and shows how unpredictable the game of roulette is.

"On August 18, 1913, at the casino in Monte Carlo, black came up a record twenty-six times in succession [in roulette]. … [There] was a near-panicky rush to bet on red, beginning about the time black had come up a phenomenal fifteen times. In application of the maturity [of chances] doctrine [the gambler's fallacy], players doubled and tripled their stakes, this doctrine leading them to believe after black came up the twentieth time that there was not a chance in a million of another repeat. In the end the unusual run enriched the Casino by some millions of francs."

Source: Darrell Huff & Irving Geis, How to Take a Chance (1959), pp. 28-29.

This is an amazing story and shows that anything can be possible. I like to keep this story in mind when I play. Sometimes we have to remove emotion from the equation and stick to the strategy regardless. This is the same manner how one deals with the stock market. You have to take emotion out of trading as well. The dangerous player knows when to use emotion and when not to.

#### kav

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##### Re: Casino Roulette Records
« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2015, 10:11:31 AM »
Yes, this is a great example why extreme events can fool you.
On the other hand "ecarts" as described by Marigny de Grilleu are another story.

IMO the greatest problem with extreme events is that their rarity makes them impractical. You wait and track too much and too long and bet too little.