Author Topic: Biased, non-ideal roulette winning strategies  (Read 1053 times)

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Jesper

Biased, non-ideal roulette winning strategies
« on: January 29, 2018, 11:26:41 AM »

I read an academic paper (Authors:A. V. Kavokin, A. S. Sheremet and M.Yu. Petrov)
The authors did the experiment in Southampton. And claim they had found a way to
spot imperfect wheels, just by playing the last fallen numbers.
They start with small bets, and if the bankroll grows, they thought they
had found a wheel with imperfections. The trial was in my view rather short,
they claim it could be detected in 200 spins. The overall edge for the
players could be 0.1%. I think it is hard to see if that just was by chance.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06943.pdf

I think a biased wheel will show repeaters, and that follow some numbers show less,
by backing fallen numbers, could theoretical detect the bias. A player could win
even if he do not understand it is a bias, if he believe in hot numbers.

I just think the papers despite all fancy graphs, had too small sample to sure
state a wheel has 0.1% advantage. Such low advantage can due to variance take
very long time to show up as winnings.
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Biased, non-ideal roulette winning strategies
« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2018, 04:10:08 PM »
Jesper,  you are right. It's a pseudo science paper written by science humsters.  Their arguments is very weak, non objective . They simply has no idea what they tolking about.
 

Sputnik

Re: Biased, non-ideal roulette winning strategies
« Reply #2 on: January 29, 2018, 05:59:42 PM »


@ Jesper ,,, Laurance Scott develop a method to spot bias wheels after some discussion with Edward Thorp.

The method is based upon collecting sample of numbers and use a specific hypothesis and s ,math formula to determine if the wheel is bias or not, without using defect spotting.

You need to collect 800 trails for each direction to tell if a wheel has a indication of being biased.
So you need to track 1600 trails for each wheel before you know to skip the wheel or continue tracking/charting.
After that is a verifying process to determine if the wheel has a true bias or if there is random fluctation.
Then you need to collect a larger sample to verify the wheel.

Cheers
« Last Edit: January 29, 2018, 06:04:11 PM by Sputnik »
 

Real

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Re: Biased, non-ideal roulette winning strategies
« Reply #3 on: January 29, 2018, 06:11:03 PM »
Laurance Scott didn't develop anything for biased wheels.  Collecting thousands of spins is a very old technique for determing bias.

Jesper,

Don't be shy jump in and write some spins.  At the very worst you write some data, but you don't lose any money.
As you collect your data (if you aren't sure of how to interpret what you see) you can share it with someone like Sputnik, Mr. Perfect, Bebkitus, Mike, or myself and chances are one of us can drop it into a spreadsheet for you and give you some positive input.
« Last Edit: January 29, 2018, 06:17:21 PM by Real »
 

Sputnik

Re: Biased, non-ideal roulette winning strategies
« Reply #4 on: January 29, 2018, 06:17:28 PM »


 Why would i lie Caleb - i can send you the files - just PM me what email you like me to use ...
 He post the complete method in hes Private Forum Section at hes site, this was when i buy hes books in the past i had one year membership.

Cheers
 

Real

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Re: Biased, non-ideal roulette winning strategies
« Reply #5 on: January 29, 2018, 06:20:40 PM »
 

Reyth

 
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Sputnik

Re: Biased, non-ideal roulette winning strategies
« Reply #7 on: January 29, 2018, 06:28:35 PM »


Email sent with Laurance Scott bias method to eliminate false positiv

Cheers
 
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Real

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Re: Biased, non-ideal roulette winning strategies
« Reply #8 on: January 29, 2018, 06:48:14 PM »
Thanks Sputnik,

I didn't know he had written anything on it.
 
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Jesper

Re: Biased, non-ideal roulette winning strategies
« Reply #9 on: January 29, 2018, 09:29:20 PM »
https://roulette-simulator.info/game/c231e3523275f3e708be0a95f0c238b4

Quick win, 40 spins.

I did use a repeater method today, it is no negative progressions. A lot of spins but at 0.1 units winning over 1000.  Tweaked an old one after reading the papers.  The funny here is the wheel is not physically it is RNG.
 
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