Author Topic: What would be an example of NON-independent outcomes?  (Read 3252 times)

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Mike

What would be an example of NON-independent outcomes?
« on: December 08, 2017, 02:44:12 PM »
Even though the "standard" model of roulette says that spins or events are independent, there could be circumstances or situations when this isn't so. Can anyone think of such a situation?

I have an example in mind but I won't reveal it yet. I'm interested to see whether someone else also thinks of it, or some other scenario.

Here's the definition of independence:

In probability theory, two events are independent, statistically independent, or stochastically independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of occurrence of the other.
« Last Edit: December 08, 2017, 02:54:59 PM by kav »
 
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kav

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Re: What would be an example of NON-independent outcomes?
« Reply #1 on: December 08, 2017, 02:56:29 PM »
Hmmm...
Just the fact that the ball is released from the previous number could be theoretically assumed that defies independence.
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: What would be an example of NON-independent outcomes?
« Reply #2 on: December 08, 2017, 04:22:34 PM »
No its not... in any way
 
 
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Fyodor

Re: What would be an example of NON-independent outcomes?
« Reply #3 on: December 08, 2017, 09:33:30 PM »
Every subsequent result recorded in sequence on a roulette wheel, bears an interdependance with prior results.
Several years ago I noticed a particular pair of sequential results, in a certain order, and DEPENDANT on wheel and ball direction to be more likely to fulfill than purely random scatter, (which, by the way, I play in (plan B) breaks.
I then extrapolated that single apparently DEPENDANT condition, to consider any similar relationship appearing in the course of a session.
I have played this method ever since, in fact, you could say, I am DEPENDING on it.
Sometimes I explore other variations, just for light entertainment, (plan B) but for the money tree, I rarely go past the DEPENDABILITY (plan A.) factor, previously mentioned.
 
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Mike

Re: What would be an example of NON-independent outcomes?
« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2017, 09:43:00 AM »
Fyodor,

So you're saying that knowing ONLY the previous numbers which have hit, you can pick the next numbers at rate higher than expectation, and without betting after the ball has been spun?

If so, I would find that hard to believe. This is what scammer Steve H claims he can do, and there are lot of customers still waiting to get their money back.

@ kav,

If that were true, you would only need to know from which pocket the ball is spun from in order to make a good "prediction".
 

kav

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Re: What would be an example of NON-independent outcomes?
« Reply #5 on: December 09, 2017, 10:23:13 AM »
Mike,
I answered your question in good faith because it was fun and teasing.
Don't try to extract deeper conclusions.
The fact that the spin outcome is dependent on a parameter (the position of where the ball is spun from) does not mean this parameter alone is enough to determine the outcome.

What's the "correct" answer?
 
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Jesper

Re: What would be an example of NON-independent outcomes?
« Reply #6 on: December 09, 2017, 10:35:41 AM »
The spins outcome are independent events.  a sequence of numbers like    1,1,1,12,12  is in fact one  more a sign of independent trials and randomness than not.  A lot of scatter is not a proof of random outcomes.   It is also hard to proof a random like stream has independent relation.  In some cryptographic system it has. Such a system must be looking very random, but still by a key be able to sure look up. Such is not a roulette wheel, and no good rng has such way of find the next number.
An example of nonindependent outcomes is a not rigged roulette wheel or a trng.
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: What would be an example of NON-independent outcomes?
« Reply #7 on: December 09, 2017, 10:36:54 AM »
 I do not know what Mike expects as an answer, Kav.
   But what you have written is correct.
 
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Mike

Re: What would be an example of NON-independent outcomes?
« Reply #8 on: December 09, 2017, 10:56:50 AM »
Kav,

You're right about the point of release not being sufficient to indicate where the ball drops, but it wasn't clear from your statement that it was tongue in cheek. Many members of this forum believe even stranger things. And BTW, you did say "JUST the fact...", which implies that just knowing the release point IS enough.

The example I have in mind is when the casino is cheating. I'm not saying that this would be a likely scenario, just that it's a case of past outcomes influencing future outcomes and affecting their probability. The details don't matter but let's suppose someone is betting heavily on red after 5 blacks in a row (Palestis' system!). The casino is using a rigged wheel with magnets, and is also aware that this player is using this particular system. Whenever 5 blacks in a row appear the magnets are switched on to deflect the ball away from red. This would mean that knowing the past outcomes (the occurrence of 5 blacks) DOES affect the probability of the occurrence of the future outcomes (red is less likely after 5 blacks). Therefore outcomes are not independent.
« Last Edit: December 09, 2017, 10:59:31 AM by Mike »
 
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kav

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Re: What would be an example of NON-independent outcomes?
« Reply #9 on: December 09, 2017, 11:37:18 AM »
Conclusion:
One way or another, Palestis' systems are an inspiration to everyone ;-)
 
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Mike

Re: What would be an example of NON-independent outcomes?
« Reply #10 on: December 09, 2017, 12:04:49 PM »
An example of nonindependent outcomes is a not rigged roulette wheel or a trng.

I agree that the scenario I just described would be unlikely, not because casinos don't cheat but because if they were doing so, a simpler way would be to just change the outcome AFTER the bet has been placed (some rigged RNGs may do this). In that case the dependency is between the bet and the next outcome, not between the spins, which would still be independent. Some people think that changing the way they bet can foil the casino cheating, as though they are trying to figure out your system. That's not necessary when all they have to do is change the outcome after you've place your bet.
 
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Fyodor

Re: What would be an example of NON-independent outcomes?
« Reply #11 on: December 09, 2017, 12:34:10 PM »
Hi Mike,
Yes, the only "trigger" numbers I can use, are the ones I can see, eg; prior results, and, as EVERY number in my strategy is a "trigger" I may, if I so choose, place a wager as soon as I am at the table.
The chosen "target" nunbers, all have a positional relationship to a pre-determined "trigger, and the "target option is up to me.
It may be a single number, a pair of adjacent numbers, or three neighbours, so I know my odds very clearly before placing the wager.
This has nothing to do with DS, VB or Job's, and is usually placed before the dealer touches the ball.
I could wait until the dealer has commenced the spin, but, as the last recorded result provides no other option, I am committed to the decision without deviation.
The "strength" of the wager is entirely up to me, the placement is DEPENDANT on the last result.
My "results" have been consistently higher than others may expect, but that is of no concern.
PS, Don't even joke about putting me anywhere near Steve the Wonder-Dog, or imply that I am trying to "sell" ANYTHING! - and never intend to.

 
 
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MickyP

Re: What would be an example of NON-independent outcomes?
« Reply #12 on: December 09, 2017, 01:01:31 PM »
Mike, I have to question the motive of your question.

Most or us ask questions on the forum with the hope of learning more about the game of roulette but in your case it's becoming increasingly obvious that with your council (WIKIPEDIA) at hand, you simply wish us to challenge what Wikipedia has to say about matters concerning the game.

How much did you loose and for how long have you been loosing? The answer to this may expose your motive.

For anyone who thinks im a bad sport just Google "gamblers fallacy"  and see what Wikipedia has to say then compare it to Mike's questions and replies to this and other posts.
 
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Mike

Re: What would be an example of NON-independent outcomes?
« Reply #13 on: December 09, 2017, 01:18:50 PM »
Micky,

I've lost nothing playing roulette, in fact I did pretty well for a while but I don't like the casino environment much, as I explained previously.

Once again you seem to think that the motive for posting is more important than the actual content of the post. As for Wikipedia, yes I do reference it occasionally, so what? I didn't learn what I know about stats and probability through wiki (I learned that at university). Wiki's scientific articles are generally very reliable, and I link to it so that people don't just think I'm making stuff up or am totally ignorant. What's your problem with that?

Quote
For anyone who thinks im a bad sport just Google "gamblers fallacy"  and see what Wikipedia has to say then compare it to Mike's questions and replies to this and other posts.

What's your point?

@ Fyodor,

Thanks. There's only one problem with your reply. It's not April 1st.
 

MickyP

Re: What would be an example of NON-independent outcomes?
« Reply #14 on: December 09, 2017, 02:10:36 PM »
It's pretty much like a drunk saying he drinks at home because he doesn't like the atmosphere in bars or maybe he doesn't like the smell of alcohol.

I'm sure every roulette player has used Google to search for subjects relevant to the game. Please understand I'm not trashing wikipedia. Anyone can source wikipedia articles like you and start a topic on the forum knowing that they have a backing of printed and published word. How not original.
Not all university graduates are able to think outside the box. Some tend to be boxed in by the laws and principles of their degree.

Your wikipedia copy paste approach soils the integrity that you have been awarded by your peers.
Come up with your own ideas on approaching roulette.