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Poll

Which of the following is the best way to spend $35 on roulette?

Bet $1 on 35 numbers for one spin
Bet $35 on one number for one spin
Bet 35 times (spins) $1 on one number
Doesn't matter - all are "equal"

Author Topic: Which is the best roulette bet?  (Read 7275 times)

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kav

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Which is the best roulette bet?
« on: August 31, 2017, 08:34:34 PM »
Various respected members have claimed recently that betting fewer numbers is somehow "better" than betting more.

Then in another topic MrPerfect wrote:
"l do not remember the name of that guy, with 2 min googling you will find his name.
He mathematically proved that most favorable way to gamble is to bet as high as you can as few trials as possible."

My own position is that there are not good or bad bets as any type of bet is equally exposed to the house advantage and has the same average expectation. Read more here: the house advantage myth The exposure on the casino edge depends on how much you bet and not what you bet.

Since there seems to be a lot of people who believe that there are better and worse bets, I ask you which from the following bets is the better one:

  • Bet $1 on 35 numbers for one spin
  • Bet $35 on one number for one spin
  • Bet 35 times (spins) $1 on one number
« Last Edit: September 01, 2017, 08:39:31 AM by kav »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: Which is the best roulette bet?
« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2017, 08:42:10 PM »

John, allow me to take the initiative by answering your 3fold question.

None of these options provide any advantage but if I had to select one of them that would be the 3rd.

According this mathematician it would be better the 2nd option, that's why we witness from time to time decisions like Ashley Revell's who bet 140,000 $ in a single spin.
Make no mistake, that guy is not a millionaire but he sold his house and everything else he had in order to bet red in a single spin.

If this makes sense to you then I would not try to convince you otherwise because I know it would be futile.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2017, 09:17:19 PM by BlueAngel »
 
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BlueAngel

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Re: Which is the best roulette bet?
« Reply #2 on: August 31, 2017, 09:36:47 PM »

For me it's mostly about when and which rather than how many.
The when determines the which, of course how many numbers you cover and how many times you bet them are also important but of secondary importance.

Just consider betting as buying money, the more wagers you place before assuming net profit the more expensive the money you buy.

We want to buy on a reasonable rate, as low as possible, but since we cannot alter the payouts and control the outcomes we have to take precautions in order to prevent loss, my measure is simply a fixed rate, as long as results fluctuate below it I continue, but when the flow turns the tide against me I quit before it's too late.

Always fluctuations, deviations, alterations, what we have to know is our limits, everything has limits so don't neglect your own!
 
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kav

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Re: Which is the best roulette bet?
« Reply #3 on: September 01, 2017, 08:34:02 AM »
Anyone?
 

MrPerfect.

Re: Which is the best roulette bet?
« Reply #4 on: September 01, 2017, 10:44:43 AM »
Kav, if l remember well, that math "genius " was making his paper about black/ red kind of thing... as always " perfect wheel " model was assumed in "perfect" math world... so in these conditions it does make sense. 
   Everyone is exposed to HE everytime he receives a payment for his bets. HE itself is not the fact of existense of number 0, but the fact that payment is unfair from odds perspective.
    Obviously in our imperfect world with imperfect wheels there are bigger problems then HE. Take as example player who know what he does... he disrupt odds. If he make a mistake, HE would be all he wishes for and it will start to look like as a discount. Real negative edges for predictive player can run huge ( up to 80% maximum witnested by me so far).
    In these math magic they use to explain HE , examples of 1/2 chances are used with flat bet, however what casinos themselves account for is a " hold percentage" ( percent of money player loose of his bank), it represents more clear what happens in reality. Roulette player is expected to loose , it's not like BJ where they assume that acasional winners are posible, win in roulette call attention straight up!!!
   
 

kav

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Re: Which is the best roulette bet?
« Reply #5 on: September 01, 2017, 10:54:52 AM »
My question is theoretical and assumes a "perfect world". I wonder which bet would this math guy choose and how would he explain his choice.
 

McCoy

Re: Which is the best roulette bet?
« Reply #6 on: September 01, 2017, 11:22:07 AM »
It depends what you mean by 'better'. If you rank the bets by probabilities the best is obviously option 1 which has a 94.6% chance of winning, followed by option 3 which has a 62% chance of winning and lastly option 2 which has a 2.7% chance. Then you have to think about the return from each of the bets but there's no easy answer to this. If you're happy with any profit then option 1 is the best, but I would go for option 3 as a compromise.
 
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McCoy

Re: Which is the best roulette bet?
« Reply #7 on: September 01, 2017, 11:46:01 AM »
A mathematician would probably work out the expectation for each of the bets which would give a more objective decision. For option 1 this is 0.946 * $1 - 0.0541 * $35 = -0.9475 (a 94.6% chance of making $1 against a 5.41% chance of losing $35). For option 2 it is 0.027 * $1225 - 0.9730 * $35 = -0.98 (2.7% chance of making $1225 minus a 97.3% chance of losing $35). The third option is difficult to calculate without knowing the average win amount over the 35 spins.
 
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Herby

Re: Which is the best roulette bet?
« Reply #8 on: September 01, 2017, 12:26:32 PM »
The Expected Value is the same in all 3 options: EV = 35*(-1/37) =  -0.945946

All 35 Units have to be exposed to the HE = played once
 
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Herby

Re: Which is the best roulette bet?
« Reply #9 on: September 01, 2017, 12:42:22 PM »
Mathematician:
J.L. Coolidge, "The Gamblers ruin", 1909
 
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Trilobite

Re: Which is the best roulette bet?
« Reply #10 on: September 01, 2017, 01:18:24 PM »
Bet 35 times on 1 number. It's a no brainer.
 
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scepticus

Re: Which is the best roulette bet?
« Reply #11 on: September 01, 2017, 01:44:08 PM »
Why don’t we  all bet $1 on 35 numbers for one spin ?
Why don’t we all bet $35 on one number for one spin?
Why don’t we all bet 35 times $1 on one number ?
Because  we live in the  real world - that is why.
Let those who choose one of them do so - and tell us the result.
 
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McCoy

Re: Which is the best roulette bet?
« Reply #12 on: September 01, 2017, 01:56:47 PM »
The Expected Value is the same in all 3 options: EV = 35*(-1/37) =  -0.945946

That's true strictly speaking but I prefer my calculations because they take into account the wins and losses, not just the expectation per unit bet. By the way in option 3 the average winning amount, assuming you do actually make a profit in the 35 spins, is a little over $20. So the expectation is 0.62 * $20 - 0.38 * $35 = -0.9, which gives the highest expectation of the 3. So in terms of these expectations the ranking is option 3 followed by option 1 and lastly option 2. The other advantage of option 3 is that you place multiple bets and so can quit with profit at any point depending on how things work out. With the other bets it's all or nothing in one spin.
 
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BlueAngel

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Re: Which is the best roulette bet?
« Reply #13 on: September 01, 2017, 02:06:48 PM »
Why don’t we  all bet $1 on 35 numbers for one spin ?

It would be the best option if and only if you will never bet this way again, just once.
But if you try to win 35 units before you lose 35 units in such manner then it's almost certain that you will lose at least once before you win 35 times.
Let me put it another way, you have 2 numbers against you which either has very high probability to hit at least once within 35 times.
Would you be happy with 1 unit and then stop? I wouldn't.

Why don’t we all bet $35 on one number for one spin?

Because it's nonsense, it seems like wishful thinking, how nice would be to hit a big win with just 1 bet...from all 3 options that's the worst by far and that mathematician had less sense, reason than a fly could has!

Why don’t we all bet 35 times $1 on one number ?

This is the best of the 3 options and if you cannot predict a number within 35 trials then you are doing something wrong and you should quit.
 
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mr j

Re: Which is the best roulette bet?
« Reply #14 on: September 01, 2017, 02:36:19 PM »
Bet 35 times on 1 number. It's a no brainer.

I could add something (as I did six years ago) but...."Ken is starting trouble again" (rofl).

Can I pick the number, can I possibly change it per spin? Do I have a history of maybe 200 spins?

It doesn't mater, its all the same, blah blah blah blah.