Author Topic: Stop-loss?  (Read 4711 times)

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« on: September 17, 2014, 02:40:27 AM »
This is my first post here, so hello Forum!

The discussion I would like to start is about stop-loss.

I do have a fairly good grasp of the game (roulette) and am no novice, but the idea or practical application of stop-loss leaves me wanting, and in need of expert advice.

I should point out that I am a system player, so some here would say doomed from the start, and that’s ok, but even so, is there some kind of practical formula that you can clock in different parameters that will result in an effective stop-loss guide for any individual method?

The method I play is usually very stable, and generally creeps northward session after session. However there will occasionally be times when the variance decides to be totally uncooperative and at these times SOUTH is the only direction the bankroll can go.

At times even advantage players need to contend with an unruly variance, so when this happens, how far south should we allow it to go?


Re: Stop-loss?
« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2014, 11:01:13 AM »
Hello and welcome Trilobite,

I hope you will share your knowledge with us in the long run.
Your question is great! I have too much to say and ask about it!
For example I hear from people who claim to be successful that they changed systems when their previous systems started to fail. The question is, how do you know that your system is a failure and not that you just having ups ands downs do to variance?

Excellent and very deep issue! Thanks for asking. I hope we can explore all the interesting aspects of stop loss, beyond the obvious "if you don't have an advantage the stop loss can do no good" and the like. 


Re: Stop-loss?
« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2014, 11:49:49 PM »
Hi kav,
Thanks for the welcome.

I remain very much in the dark as to whether a stop-loss is of any worth or not.

Betting percentage of bankroll would appear to be a sensible way to avoid using a stop-loss, but how practical is it really? How do you break it down effectively? How do you bet 1% of 5155 units? All the rounding up and rounding down of units while betting on the fly seems impractical to me, and it’s not really 1% then is it.
Currently I prefer not to but will if I have to, simply change wheels and more than once if necessary, to turn a session around when variance is flogging my system. Not sure if that should help, but it does seem to because different wheels are likely in different present states or conditions, and they can’t all be set to destroy you at the same time, can they?

To this end, I advocate building strategies that can be carried over to new wheels and new times and new venues, without ever being disrupted or terminated. In my opinion a never-ending system is best because the game is also never-ending.


Re: Stop-loss?
« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2014, 06:45:42 AM »
You touch another very interesting issue there that is called personal permanence! You just reminded that I planed to write a very detailed article about and (like always) I am out of schedule.
According to some school of thought, EVERY system can be carried over to new wheels and new times and new venues, without ever being disrupted or terminated.


Re: Stop-loss?
« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2014, 11:53:08 PM »

If you think into it deeply enough I suppose that is right. You should in principal be able to table hop any system, but those playing progressions and attempting to catch some kind of rare or due event would be very put-out if you told them they had to change tables or come back tomorrow while deep in a hole.

Player confidence, psychology, and comfort would take a beating on that one. And those things are not to be dismissed as being important to the player. Cyclic betting and progressions linked to MM and not to event chasing are in my opinion better options for maintaining good player composure, especially when table hoping and such.

An in depth article on personal permanence would be fascinating. I hope you are able to put it together soon and look forward to reading and discussing.


Re: Stop-loss?
« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2014, 09:26:05 AM »
start any session with a virtual loss and stop the session after you have reached your goal.


Re: Stop-loss?
« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2014, 09:54:54 AM »
Hi Trilobite;
TIME is  still  important. Our ability to transcend time is rather limited, although there is no clock on the wall. It feels right to watch spins from one table and try to reach a goal this evening. In theory we should be able to swich table, have a long break and continue the session next week or next year here or there.
Once I waited much too long for all three numbers in any street to come. I area 1-36 there are twelve streets (1-3, 4-6 etc.).
Then I looked for other adjacent numbers on the layout to come with one number from each column. Examples: 1-5-9 or 30-32-34 There are TWENTY of those combinations!

I don´t like counting spins or chips. Instead I have chosen to count the numbers that have come. I have placed my DEADLINE right after filling exactly THIRTEEN different squares in inside the 12x3 Squares or Spaces.

It should be obvious that the probability for the appearance of any randomly selected number in area 1-36 in that period is exactly 13/36.
And the probability that one specific combination (say 1-5-9) does NOT come with all three numbers in time is 1-(13/36 ^3) = 0.9529106653.
0.9529106653 ^20 = 0.38110421747. In other words: The probability that all three numbers in at least one of the 20 combinations turn up in time is approx. 0.6188957256.
 Twenty sessions confirmed that: I reached the goal 12 times out of 20.



Re: Stop-loss?
« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2014, 12:34:40 PM »
The layout of the ER has 157 different chanses. Every chance has its own random sequence. For every chance you can compute the average expectation of falling.You can start a strategy after all deviations of three times the average or more.
 This depends on the risk, you will take..Every chance has a own betting schedule.