**Why AP doesn't work:**

Practical reasons

Psychological reasons

Legal reasons

Mathematical reasons

Advantage Play, probabilities and gambler's fallacy

**Probabilities and Gambler's Fallacy**

Many AP players are throwing around the "gambler's fallacy" (GF for short) accusation, when the issue really is probabilities. Probabilities have a deterministic quality. They tell you how things will "end" or look like after a large enough sample of trials. [random Events video]

Advantage Play

I will give you a great advantage. Let's say that the pocket of a specific number on an American wheel is 50% wider than the rest numbers. Imagine that - it is an advantage players dream, right? What it actually means is that this specific number has 3,9% probabilities to show versus 2,6% of the rest of the numbers and versus 2,7% of a number in a fair European wheel.

Now you consider this 1,2% advantage over a fair European wheel number so crucial that you claim you can make a living out of it, yet when I point out the 48,6% probability of Even chances and tell you that Black cannot sleep for too long too often you tell me that anything is possible and my premise is based on Gambler's Fallacy. I'm not "allowed" to expect the 48,6% chances of Black to materialize or have any effect within the next 50 or 100 spins, but your 1,2% advantage will surely take effect and provide you with steady income day in and day out.

**Contradiction**

The truth is that you can't have it both ways. You can't on one hand claim that the casino will win based on the 2,7% house edge or that you will win based on a 1,2% advantage and at the same time say that one can not depend on Red or Blacks 48,6% probabilities for it to show up.

For you it is always a question if and when and how many times High or Low numbers will appear, yet it is always written in stone and sure as US treasuries that bias numbers will hit more often.